Two years after farmers from the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh ended their year-long protest after the Narendra Modi government agreed to repeal three controversial farm laws, they are back again at the borders of Delhi to press their demands.
On February 13, thousands of farmers from some 200 farmers’ unions and organizations began converging in tractors, trucks, and other vehicles loaded with food rations, cooking equipment, and tents, in preparation for a long siege of the Indian capital.
Unlike in 2020-21, when the Modi government was caught off guard, this time it has fortified Delhi ahead of the protesters’ arrival. In addition to deploying around 5,000 police and paramilitary personnel, riot control vehicles, and water cannons along roads leading to Delhi and on the capital’s borders with Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, multilayered barricades comprising concrete blocks, containers, spikes, and concertina wires have been erected. The gathering of four or more persons and processions have been prohibited in the capital for a month, and the internet has been shut down in several areas.
On February 13, which was Day One of the Dilli Chalo (On to Delhi) march, farmers broke through the security barricades. And in a sign of what lies ahead, violent clashes erupted as police turned water cannons and tear gas on the advancing farmers. Day two of the protests was no different. During the 2020-21 protests, hundreds of farmers lost their lives in clashes with the police.
So why are they risking their lives and back at Delhi’s doorsteps?
The 2020-21 protests ended when the Modi government agreed to withdraw the three farm laws and to discuss other demands, including guaranteed minimum support price (MSP) for crops, withdrawal of criminal cases against the protesters, compensation for those killed in the Lakhimpur Kheri violence, waiver of farm loans, etc. Two years on, the farmers accuse the government of reneging on its commitments.
“MSP has no legal sanctity yet. This was one of our primary demands [during the 2020-21 farmers’ protest],” Ramandeep Singh Mann, a farmers’ leader told the Kolkata English daily The Telegraph. “We have waited for two years,” he said, “and now want the government to answer whether they accept it [enshrinement of the MSP in a law] or not.”
Early this week, the government dispatched ministers to talk to the farmers’ leaders to stop them from setting off for Delhi. The talks ended without a resolution. While the government was willing to withdraw cases against the farmers registered during the 2020-21 agitation, it did not concede their primary demand for a legal guarantee for MSP.
Union Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, who was part of the government delegation, said that this demand cannot be met immediately as a law on MSP will require talks with multiple stakeholders.
The farmers have begun their march at a critical time; India will vote in general elections in a few months. While the Narendra Modi government is poised to win a third successive term in power, it cannot afford to mishandle the protests, as farmers are an influential voting bloc. Most of the participants in the current protests are from the politically crucial states in the Hindi heartland.
The Modi government will be keen to ensure that the current protest is not a replay of the prolonged and violent protests of 2020.
The protests and the farmers’ demands could be important issues in the upcoming general elections. The opposition parties belonging to the INDIA bloc have come out in support of the protesting farmers. On Tuesday, Congress parliamentarian Rahul Gandhi announced that if elected to power, the Congress would provide farmers with a legal guarantee for MSP.
So how serious will the impact of the farmers’ protests be on the BJP’s electoral performance?
The protests are unlikely to be as powerful and prolonged as in 2020-21. The farmers’ organizations are badly divided. The Sanyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) and key farmers’ leaders who spearheaded the previous agitation are not participating in the current protests, which are led by the SKM (non-political), a breakaway faction of the SKM. Jat and Khap organizations are staying away too. The number of farmers participating in the current protests is far smaller this time around, and these numbers could shrink further if farmers return to their villages for the upcoming harvest season and elections.
Importantly, as mentioned above, the Modi government has fortified Delhi and will ensure that the protesters do not set up camps or mini villages, as they did in 2020-21. It can be expected to adopt a policy of divide and rule to weaken the agitation, extending carrots to those who break ranks with the protesters and using force against those who persist.
In a grand gesture to woo farmers, the government last week announced that it was posthumously conferring the Bharat Ratna, India’s highest civilian award, on Chaudhry Charan Singh, a towering farmers’ leader and former prime minister, and Dr. M.S. Swaminathan, the father of India’s Green Revolution, among several others.
Swaminathan headed the committee whose recommendations the farmers are calling to implement, while Singh is the grandfather of Jayant Chaudhry, chairman of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, a party with support among sugarcane farmers in western Uttar Pradesh. Following the Bharat Ratna being awarded to his grandfather, Chaudhry quit the INDIA bloc to align with the BJP. The BJP is hoping that with the RLD on its side, electoral damage from the farmers’ protests to its election performance in the region will be limited.
The farmers’ protests hold out an opportunity for the INDIA bloc ahead of elections. The alliance is in disarray, with constituent parties failing to reach seat-sharing arrangements. Key allies like the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have refused to concede seats to the Congress in the states of West Bengal and Punjab, respectively.
The farmers’ demands provide the INDIA bloc with a strong issue on which they can unite and rally the masses. So far, the bloc has frittered away every opportunity that has come its way. With elections nearing, it is running out of time. The farmers’ protests are the opposition’s last chance to get its act together before elections.