In its latest defense white paper, Tokyo has for the first time sounded a direct warning against the growing risk of a grave situation akin to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurring in East Asia.
“Japan is facing the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II. It cannot be ruled out that a serious situation similar to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may occur in the Indo-Pacific region in future, particularly in East Asia,” the annual defense white paper, titled “Defense of Japan 2024” published on July 12, states.
Without mentioning China by name, this part of the white paper is clearly a reference to a possible Taiwan contingency.
“The first part of the year’s defense white paper, which describes the security situation surrounding Japan, is the most tense in the paper’s history, given Russia’s protracted invasion of Ukraine, China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan, and North Korea’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons,” Yoshinaga Kenji, a former intelligence officer in both the Public Security Intelligence Agency and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, told The Diplomat.
The white paper expressed “serious concern” over China’s hardline external stance and increasing military activities, accusing Beijing of presenting “an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge to which Japan should respond with its comprehensive national power and in cooperation and collaboration with its ally, like-minded countries and others.”
Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru said on the opening page of the white paper that “no country can protect her own security alone,” underscoring the need to strengthen cooperation with like-minded countries with whom Tokyo shares universal values and strategic interests.
Furthermore, Japan stepped up its alarm over China’s assertiveness in the region.
“China has been intensifying its activities across the entire region surrounding Japan, including in the East China Sea, particularly in the area around the Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan, and the western Pacific Ocean, extending beyond the so-called first island chain to the second island chain,” the paper noted.
Tokyo administers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea and insists they are an inherent part of the territory of Japan. China claims they should be under Beijing’s control.
The white paper also highlighted China’s intensifying military activities around Taiwan.
“Through a series of activities around Taiwan, China is believed to be attempting to create a fait accompli of a situation in which Chinese military activities are commonplace, while at the same time improving its combat capabilities,” the paper noted.
“As a result of these increasing military activities by the Chinese side, the possibility of increased military tensions between China and Taiwan cannot be denied,” the paper pointed out for the first time.
“Stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is important not only for Japan’s national security but also for the stability of the international community. Therefore, it is necessary that we pay close attention to the situation with a sense of crisis more than ever before,” it added.
Tokyo also expressed grave concerns about Beijing’s further strengthening cooperation with Russia, including intensifying China-Russia joint military drills around Japan.
“It has also conducted joint bomber fighters and naval navigations with Russia in the vicinity of Japan. These repeated joint activities are clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan,” the paper said.
On North Korea, the white paper states that military activities by the Northeast Asian country continue to pose “an even more grave and imminent threat to Japan’s national security than ever before,” by pointing out Pyongyang’s rapid progress in nuclear and missile development.
In particular, this year’s white paper pointed out Pyongyang is focusing on improving the quality of its nuclear weapons capabilities through new solid-fuel missiles and spy satellites.
“North Korea is focusing on qualitatively improving its nuclear and missile capabilities, such as diversifying its equipment systems and acquiring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) means that complement its nuclear and missile operational capabilities,” the paper stated.
The white paper also mentioned North Korea’s provision of military equipment and ammunition to Russia for the first time.
“Furthermore, it was revealed that North Korea had provided Russia with ballistic missiles, which were used against Ukraine between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024,” the paper read.
Regarding Russia, Tokyo also expressed “a strong security concern.” The paper pointed out that Russia’s continuing aggression against Ukraine is an “unprecedented” situation, accusing Moscow of openly engaging in military actions challenging international law and the international order, claiming innocent lives and repeatedly using languages and actions that can be interpreted as threats involving nuclear weapons.
“Russia is continuing active military activities in the Northern Territories, which are inherent territories of Japan, under illegal occupation,” the paper also noted.
Japan’s defense white paper is an annual report that describes changes in the security environment surrounding Japan and the country’s defense efforts over the past year.
The defense ministry emphasized that the white paper only covers the period from April 2023 to March 2024 and is thus not a strategic document.