Update: Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio canceled his planned travel to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia at the last minute following a warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency of an elevated risk of a “megaquake.”
Central Asia is becoming increasingly significant on the global stage as major players compete for influence in this resource-rich and strategic region. In 2023, Central Asian leaders held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, engaged with President of the European Council Charles Michel in June, and participated in a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in September.
On August 9, Astana will host the Central Asia plus Japan Summit Dialogue.
Launched in 2004, this initiative has traditionally involved regular ministerial-level meetings to discuss current and future prospects of inter-regional cooperation. Although the forum has long been a central platform for constructive engagement between Japan and the Central Asian states, this year’s event is generating particular attention as it will be the first summit at the top leader level.
Significance of the Event
Central Asia’s geopolitical importance has surged recently, particularly in light of the conflict in Ukraine. Located at the crossroads of major trade routes between Europe and Asia, the region is a key transit point and a growing trade hub. Additionally, Central Asia is rich in natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare earth elements, making it an attractive location for countries seeking to secure supply chains for these critical materials.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has somewhat loosened the ties between the Central Asian countries and Moscow. Although economic bonds remain strong, several Central Asian countries are seeking to maximize benefits by cooperating with all willing partners. Kazakhstan, in particular, has adopted a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy, promoting cooperation and dialogue among all sides rather than competition. This approach has created a window of opportunity with promising prospects for various actors.
China has seized this opportunity with its trade and infrastructure development plans within the Belt and Road Initiative. The EU is engaging with socioeconomic development objectives grounded in sustainability. Meanwhile, the United States, despite its geographical distance, maintains an active dialogue focused on developing the region, particularly in promoting new trade routes.
In this context, Japan is also keen to enhance its ties with Central Asia. During the 16th Senior Officials Meeting of the Central Asia + Japan Dialogue on May 14, which set up the upcoming event, three key themes were highlighted: sustainability, interconnectivity, and the development of human resources.
Sustainability and Energy Security
Central Asian countries are rich in natural resources but heavily reliant on oil and gas, which produce significant greenhouse gas emissions. Japan has committed to supporting Central Asia’s efforts toward sustainable economic development. It is expected that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will emphasize Japan’s role in helping the region achieve carbon neutrality during his visit. This includes offering Japanese technologies that reduce emissions from fossil fuel-fired thermal power plants and promoting the production of high-value-added export goods such as hydrogen and fertilizers made from natural gas.
Japan can play an important role in the energy transition process in Central Asia. Kazakhstan, for example, aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The country’s “Doctrine of Carbon Neutral Development” outlines key measures such as phasing out coal combustion by 2025, doubling the share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation by 2030, and fully electrifying personal passenger transport by 2045. With significant potential for renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, Kazakhstan plans to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix to 15 percent by 2030. As Japan and Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of cooperation on low-carbon development and energy transition in January 2024, Japanese technology and loans are expected to ease this process.
Conversely, Central Asia can help Japan reduce its dependence on energy supplies and enhance its energy security. In this regard, Japan has increased its investment in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan’s oil and gas infrastructure, developed renewable energy sources in Kyrgyzstan, including hydroelectric power plants, and partnered with Kazakhstan in uranium mining – a critical resource for Japan’s nuclear energy sector. However, the geographical distance between Japan and Central Asia can pose logistical challenges and increased transportation costs, complicating the efficient and timely direct exchange of these critical resources.
Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy ambitions offer another potential area for collaboration. The country plans to hold a referendum in autumn 2024 on whether to build its first nuclear power plant. This initiative, announced by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, diversify the energy mix, and lower CO2 emissions. Given Japan’s extensive experience with nuclear technology, it can play a supportive role in Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy plans, providing advanced technology, stringent safety protocols, and training programs for Kazakh engineers and technicians. Notably, both countries are champions in international dialogues on military denuclearization, and such a shared perspective might facilitate their cooperation.
Enhancing Connectivity
Another key element of Japan’s regional engagement is Tokyo’s interest in enhancing connectivity between Europe and Asia. Japan plans to support the further development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also called the Middle Corridor, a maritime shipping route through the Caspian Sea aimed at connecting China with Europe via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, while bypassing Russia. Despite weak global trade statistics last year, cargo transportation along the TITR exceeded 2.7 million tons in 2023, a 65 percent increase compared to 2022. Cargo transportation via the TITR in the first half of 2024 was 2.2 million tons.
Once the TITR route is fully operational, it is expected to facilitate trade and reduce transportation costs, thereby increasing the competitiveness of Central Asian goods in the European market. To support this, the Kazakh ports of Aktau and Kuryk on the Caspian Sea are being developed to handle increasing cargo volumes. In such a framework, Japan’s contribution will likely include providing digital technologies for processing customs procedures, a crucial step in infrastructural modernization to improve logistics and trade flows. Likewise, Japan’s expertise in infrastructure can further support the development of transportation and logistics networks, as the country has already invested in and funded various infrastructural projects across the region.
Human Resource Development
Japan’s engagement with Central Asia also extends to human resource development. Recognizing the region’s need to diversify its workforce destinations amid tightening Western economic sanctions on Russia, Japan will encourage Central Asian countries to participate in its vocational training programs. These programs aim to equip Central Asian workers with skills in various trades, addressing Japan’s acute labor shortages while fostering person-to-person exchanges.
Additionally, Japan has a history of supporting educational and leadership development through the Japan Centers and JICA programs, which have trained many Central Asian leaders and professionals who now play key roles in their home countries.
This focus on human resource development has far-reaching implications. For Japan, it means mitigating labor shortages and sustaining economic growth by integrating skilled workers from Central Asia into its workforce. For Central Asian countries, it represents a strategic opportunity to enhance their human capital, increase employment rates, and foster economic diversification.
A Strategic Partnership
As global powers vie for influence in Central Asia, Japan’s multifaceted approach – focused on sustainability, interconnectivity, and human resource development – positions it as an additional key partner for the region. Additionally, Central Asian countries view this summit as an opportunity to diversify their international partnerships, boost economic growth, and enhance regional stability by leveraging Japan’s expertise and support.
The success of this partnership will depend on navigating the complex geopolitical landscape, balancing the interests of other major powers, and ensuring that sustainable development goals are met without compromising economic growth. Additionally, the effective implementation of proposed projects will require overcoming logistical hurdles and ensuring long-term commitment from all stakeholders. Despite these challenges, the summit holds the promise of a transformative collaboration that could fortify Japan’s strategic position in the region.