India is increasing its investments in space.
For the financial year 2024-2025, India has allocated $1.5 billion to the Department of Space, registering a 4 percent increase from the previous year. India has also started a venture capital firm with about $119.5 million to support its commercial space sector. As per the 2024-2025 budget, India is focusing on developing its human spaceflight program, increasing satellite launches, developing its commercial launch capacities, and reducing India’s dependence on imports for its space sector.
In its 2047 Vision, India specifies that it aspires to “becoming self-reliant in defence and space sectors and enhancing India’s role in the world.” I have written previously about India’s Space Vision 2047 and some of the ambitions that India has articulated, including developing the first robotic phase of its space station by 2028, completing its space station by 2035, and lunar human landing and habitation by 2040.
The head of the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), S. Somanath, said in January, “We have a roadmap for what we have planned till 2047… We can build a space station, we can send human beings to the moon, and we can create moon-based economic activity in space.” And in his speech during India’s Independence Day on August 15, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned India’s aspiration to develop its space station.
This is therefore an opportune time to measure the depth of India’s space capacities.
Civil and Commercial Space
India has four launch systems: the four-stage Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) with a payload capacity of 1.5 tons to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), and 2 tons to sun synchronous polar orbit; the three-stage geosynchronous launch vehicle (GSLV)-Mk-II with a payload capacity of 2 tons to GTO and 6 tons to low Earth orbit (LEO); and the three-stage GSLV-LVM-3 with a payload capacity of 4 tons to GTO, and 10 tons to LEO. The small satellite launch vehicle (SSLV) can put a single satellite with a weight of 0.55 tons into planar orbit.
India’s commercial sector is developing launchers like Skyroot Aerospace’s Vikram series of rockets. India has also tested a series of reusable spaceplanes with its third and final reusable launch vehicle-RLV (LEX) called Pushpak executing “precise horizontal landing” based on autonomous capabilities in June 2024. Pushpak was released from 500 meters above ground. The key challenge will be to test it in orbit and bring it back to Earth safely.
However, a weakness in India’s space program is the absence of a heavy-lift rocket, and that could limit its more ambitious goals like building its space station or lunar habitation. In comparison to India’s GSLV-LVM-3 (4 tons to GTO and 10 tons to LEO), Space X’s Falcon Heavy can lift 64 tons of payload to LEO, and 26 tons to GTO, with the added advantage that its first stage is reusable. China’s Long March 5 has a payload lift capacity of 25 tons to LEO and 14 tons to GTO. Space X and China are building reusable super heavy-lift rockets, Starship and the Long March 9, capable of lifting 150 tons to LEO.
ISRO’s New Space India Ltd (NSIL) released a request for qualification in May 2024 to develop such a launcher in the next 14 years. It is not clear from the document what lift capacity India aspires to for its heavy-lift rocket. It is pertinent to note that India’s Department of Space’s vision for India’s space program does not include the development of a heavy-lift rocket as a priority.
India seeks to develop satellite internet, but there is no clear government plan to make it a critical infrastructure. For China, satellite internet is part of its new infrastructure as per its powerful National Development and Reform Commission 2020 ruling, and is part of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). India is attempting to close this gap by supporting private-based large constellations like that of One Web which has 633 satellites in LEO. However, Eutelsat, of which One Web is a part, was constrained from reaching its goal of global coverage due to regulatory delays in India specifically from IN-SPACE (Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Center), which regulates such activities.
As per IN-SPACE, India’s space economy has the potential to reach $44 billion by 2033, adding about 8 percent to the global space economy. However, such projections must be supported by a better business competitiveness index and faster and more efficient regulatory processes.
Military Space
India’s military space capacities have undergone significant changes, with the establishment of two new institutions, the Defense Space Agency (DSA), and the Defense Space Research Organization. The DSA is a tri-service (Army, Navy, Air Force) agency created in 2019. In collaboration with the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), DSA aspires to build India’s defense space capacities, specifically focused on showcasing space power. This includes anti-satellite capacities (kinetic and non-kinetic), signals intelligence (SIGINT), communications intelligence (COMINT), and electronic intelligence (ELINT).
In a request for information (RFI), the DSA pointed out that building a mobile launch system capable of launching about 0.71 tons, supported by an integrated launch control center, was of vital necessity. As per the rationale of the DSA:
Static launch sites are vulnerable to hostile actions and could be prime targets in case of hostilities. This necessitates development of transportable launchers which can be moved and deployed for launch as per convenience. It is proposed to develop Transportable/Mobile Launch Systems that can operate from ground/ aerial/ sea-based platforms to provide launch capabilities with flexibility of launch windows for different kind of payloads. The launch system should be all weather capable and be able to deploy satellites weighing upto 650 Kgs to altitudes upto 700 Kms. The system should be able to change from transportable position to ‘Launch ready position” in not more than 60 minutes.
From an analysis of DSA’s RFI, we can infer that India wants to develop both a mobile launch capability and a diversified launch system, consisting of solid and liquid-propelled rockets. As per India’s Chief of Defense Staff (CDS), General Anil Chauhan, India should invest in developing a launch-on-demand capacity, “as the national requirements of ISR, PNT [precision, navigation, and timing], and communication grow.” This launch-on-demand capability is vital from a national security perspective given the growth of counter-space capabilities for countries like China, with whom India suffers from territorial conflicts. In case an Indian satellite is destroyed by Chinese non-kinetic measures like jamming, spoofing, or laser, India wants to possess the capability to launch a satellite on demand to replace a damaged satellite. The SSLV has been developed as “on-demand access to space for small satellites.”
If we compare India’s military space satellites today with those of China and the United States, India comes a distant third. China has 360 satellites dedicated to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), with nearly 245 of them being military satellites. The U.S. has 247 military satellites approximately. India has just nine military satellites.
India also lacks strategic clarity because of the absence of an Indian military space doctrine. Clarity regarding national security is important given India is poised to emerge as a prominent international player, with a robust economy and a demographic dividend. It might also have to take over leadership roles in the Indo-Pacific and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
To conclude, India’s policy decision to collaborate with its nascent private space sector to develop space capabilities, both in the civil and military fields, has enormous potential. However, India has some catching up to do concerning its heavy-lift space launch and reusable launch capabilities. India also lacks diversified mobile launch platforms today, something China has developed through its solid, liquid, and mobile space launch systems.
Where India’s matrix on space power takes the hardest hit is the lack of strategic clarity regarding the “why” of its space policies and investments specifically in the military domain. Perhaps the time has come for India to revisit some of its civil and military space postures to provide strategic clarity to itself and its partner nations.