Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus was sworn in on August 8 as chief adviser of Bangladesh’s 17-member interim government. Soon after, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first world leader to extend his “best wishes” to Yunus.
“My best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus on the assumption of his new responsibilities. We hope for an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities. India remains committed to working with Bangladesh to fulfill the shared aspirations of both our peoples for peace, security and development,” Modi wrote on X.
One might wonder why Modi would so wholeheartedly welcome someone stepping in as the alternative to former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with whom he always maintained a great rapport.
Just a few days ago, Yunus indirectly criticized India for its refusal to comment on the Bangladeshi government’s state-sponsored violence against quota reform protesters.
“When India says it’s internal affairs, it hurts me. If there is a fire in the brother’s house, how can I say it is an internal affair? Diplomacy has a much richer vocabulary than saying it is their internal affair,” Yunus told The Indian Express.
“If you destabilize Bangladesh, it will spill over all around Bangladesh, including Myanmar and Seven Sisters [the states of Northeast India], in West Bengal, everywhere,” he told NDTV in a separate interview.
Despite such remarks, which many perceived as “passive-aggressive,” Modi’s gesture of greeting Yunus appears to be the best course of action, not only for his Bharatiya Janata Party but also for India as a whole.
It’s an open secret that India has lost several close allies in neighboring countries in recent years, and the ousting of Hasina suggests that India may now also struggle to maintain its influence in Bangladesh, a country critics noted it had “taken for granted.”
India has already encountered similar situations in the Maldives and Nepal, where anti-India sentiments have grown, leading to the rise of leaders with a tilt toward China.
Bangladesh’s drift away from India could be especially alarming, given its critical role in safeguarding India’s eastern security and ensuring vital connectivity with Southeast Asia. In short, the new leadership in Bangladesh, if aligned with parties favoring closer ties with China, the United States, and Pakistan, will pose a significant challenge to India that it is not yet prepared to handle.
India is clearly now rethinking its approach to maintaining influence in Bangladesh, aiming to balance asserting its presence with avoiding the perception of overreach that has previously caused resentment among Bangladeshis.
The “best wishes” extended to Yunus could be a positive first step in setting India on the right path for the time being.
Yunus, a well-regarded and respected figure globally, particularly in the West, is also an overwhelmingly popular figure in Bangladesh at the moment. He was not only chosen by the quota movement coordinators as interim leader but has also received unanimous support from Bangladesh’s other major political parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami.
Even the full spectrum of Bangladesh’s media is rallying behind Yunus to “bring back stability in the country.”
But there’s a catch. It’s widely known that India doesn’t want either the BNP or Jamaat to come to power in Bangladesh due to their historical anti-India stances, support for insurgent groups hostile to India, and preference for closer ties with China and Pakistan, both of which are strategic rivals to India. Their rise could disrupt the ongoing cooperation on trade, security, and regional connectivity that India had established with the secular Awami League government under Hasina.
India’s broader strategic interests in regional stability and security, particularly in its northeastern states, could also be jeopardized if these parties gain influence, leading to heightened tensions and a shift away from the pro-India policies that have defined Bangladesh’s recent governance.
Domestically, the actions of the BNP and Jamaat since Hasina’s fall have already shown their potential impact. Activists and leaders from these parties have engaged in acts of vengeance against political opponents, as well as burning, vandalizing, and looting the homes and religious establishments of Hindus and other minority groups.
Considering the current coverage of the Bangladesh issue by Indian media, it is evident that there is a collective belief in India that if the BNP or Jamaat gain power, Bangladesh could risk transforming into a radical, fundamentalist state with the potential for increased terrorism.
Hence, many think it is crucial for India to prevent these two parties from gaining power in Bangladesh. Supporting Yunus could be the most effective approach to achieving this goal at this point.
Both the BNP and Jamaat have called for the interim government to hold the next general election within three months, whereas Yunus advocates for the interim government to remain in power for at least three years. This difference could lead to a major clash between the interim government and the BNP-Jamaat in the coming days.
If the general elections take place within three months, it’s likely that BNP-Jamaat will secure the majority of seats and form government, as there are no other credible alternatives to provide strong competition. Bangladeshi citizens too are not yet ready to move beyond the binary choice of either the Awami League or the BNP.
However, if the Yunus-led interim government prioritizes restoring law and order in Bangladesh and then focuses on reforming what some have called a fascist system and making necessary constitutional amendments rather than hastily holding elections to restore democracy, it would allow student protesters and other emerging forces to unite and form a new political party.
This could provide a viable alternative to both the BNP and Jamaat, if not immediately, then certainly within the next couple of years.
The only way to prevent BNP-Jamaat from coming to power is to ensure that Yunus remains in his role as chief adviser of the interim government for as long as necessary. Given his extensive political experience and the support of powerful foreign policy strategists, Modi is undoubtedly well aware of this.
Don’t be surprised if Modi tries to be even more friendly to Yunus and his interim government in the near future.