On September 27, Ishiba Shigeru was chosen as the new leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party in the main ruling party’s presidential election. Based on the nation’s parliamentary system, he will officially become Japan’s new prime minister on October 1, succeeding Kishida Fumio.
Who is Ishiba Shigeru? And why has Ishiba been chosen now as Japan’s new top leader?
Here are three points we should know about him, especially in the areas of foreign policy and security.
A Change of Government Within the LDP: Voting Against Abe Politics
Kishida has become very unpopular among the Japanese public because of a series of political scandals such as cozy ties between LDP lawmakers and the controversial Unification Church, and the revelation of illegal, undocumented political funds, worth tens of millions of yen, for many LDP politicians.
All of these issues came to the surface after former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s assassination in July 2022, with the Abe’s right-wing faction, called Seiwakai, as the epicenter for the scandal.
Kishida could not demonstrate strong leadership and failed to solve the problems, which led to deep-rooted distrust of LDP’s politics among the public. An NHK opinion poll early September showed the approval rate for Kishida’s Cabinet had dropped to 20 percent, the lowest since Kishida took office in 2021. This unpopularity forced Kishida to refrain from seeking re-election in the LDP presidential race.
Meanwhile, Ishiba has been a longtime strong political rival to the late Abe and his ally Aso Taro, also a former prime minister. Ishiba has been stuck in a minor position, or a do-nothing job, for most of the Abe administration and the following Kishida administration.
In his free time, Ishiba has appeared a lot on various media outlets, including television and YouTube, and has become increasingly popular among the public.
This was Ishiba’s fifth bid for the LDP presidency, in what he called his “last battle.” And he finally made it.
Thanks to the dissolution of LDP factions, especially the largest 96-member Abe faction, Ishiba succeeded in his comeback by defeating Takaichi Sanae, who called for the continuation of Abe’s politics, in the runoff of the presidential election on September 27.
Ishiba’s return from the fringe to the mainstream represents a change of power within the LDP – and it also represents a shift away from Abe-era politics. The election of the late Abe’s long-time rival marks a pendulum swing from the right to the moderate center.
Ishiba Inherits Political DNA From His Former Boss Tanaka Kakuei
Ishiba’s father was the late Ishiba Jiro, who served as the governor of Tottori Prefecture and the minister of home affairs. During his lifetime, Jiro had been friends with former Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei, and was said to have been fascinated by Tanaka’s personality. After his father’s funeral, Ishiba Shigeru, who was still in his early 20s, was called by Tanaka to his home in Mejiro of Tokyo and was urged by the former prime minister to run for the House of Representatives election.
For this reason, Ishiba has regarded Tanaka as his political mentor.
Tanaka is known as a pro-China figure, as he issued the Japan-China Joint Communiqué with his Chinese counterpart Zhou Enlai in September 1972. There are also some views among experts that Tanaka was striving to achieve independence from the United States through his energy strategy. Ishiba’s strong affinity with Tanaka thus is of great interest to foreign policy watchers.
As Daniel Sneider, lecturer at International Policy at Stanford University, wrote in Japan’s Toyo Keizai Online on September 12:
Ishiba is perhaps the most intriguing and potentially difficult leader for Japan among Americans. Although he garners considerable attention in Japan, he is not that well known in the U.S. He has some support in the Pentagon from his experience as Defense Minister and his interest in weapons development. But he has a reputation as a Japanese Gaullist, someone willing to forge a more independent path for Japan.
Ishiba Is One of the Leading Defense Experts in Japanese Politics
As for security policy, we know a great deal about Ishiba’s views. He has served as defense minister twice and is recognized as one of the leading defense experts in the political world. He is known as a good debater who does not shy away from expressing his views.
Ishiba has proposed a NATO-style collective security arrangement in Asia. He has also proposed to review the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and Status of Forces Agreement by allowing the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to be stationed in Guam to strengthen the deterrence capabilities of Japan and the United States.
“If this happens, a status agreement for the ‘SDF in Guam’ could be made the same as that for U.S. forces in Japan. Furthermore, expanding the scope of joint management of U.S. bases in Japan would also reduce the burden on U.S. forces in Japan,” he wrote in an opinion piece published by Hudson Institute in Washington on September 25, 2024.
However, realistically speaking, many experts in Japan and elsewhere believe it will be very difficult to establish an Asian version of NATO.
Unlike NATO, which has Russia as a hypothetical enemy, many Southeast Asian countries are skeptical about whether they want a military alliance against China. India also hews to “strategic autonomy” by trying not to stir up unnecessary tension and confrontation with Beijing.
“Asian countries have varying relations with China, including those in Southeast Asia. Some also have strong connections with Beijing and Washington as economic partners. Differences among Asian countries as well as a lack of unity about China policy would make the emergence of an Asian NATO-like alliance somewhat uncertain,” a diplomatic source from ASEAN told The Diplomat on condition of anonymity.
In addition, Ishiba’s calls for a review of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement and proposal to build a training base for the JSDF in the United States are likely to be strongly opposed by Washington.
The new administration may face a difficult start in terms of diplomacy and security.