When India imposed a 6-month economic blockade on Nepal in 2015, the frontline diplomats from both countries were their ambassadors to Delhi and Kathmandu as well as their foreign ministers. In the nine years since, some of these figures have put information on that trying time into the public record.
India’s external affairs minister during that period, Sushma Swaraj, passed away in 2019 and never went public with her insights and experiences during the Indian blockade. However, the then-India ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae, detailed his opinion on the blockade in a book titled “Kathmandu Dilemma.”
From the Nepali side, the blockade-era Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Nepal Kamal Thapa has just published a book in the Nepali language titled “Nakabanadhi ra Bhurajniti,” which roughly translates as “Blockade and Geopolitics.” It is his third book but the first on diplomacy and geopolitics. In this 303-page book, Thapa has elaborated at length about behind-the-scenes and closed-door diplomacy to unlock the Indian blockade of 2015 – including high-level in-person talks during the economic embargo.
India’s economic blockade of 2015 was the fourth it had inflicted on Nepal. The previous one occurred in 1989, when Thapa was the minister of communication. He thus had a firsthand understanding of two Indian blockades from a perspective within the Nepal government.
In Thapa’s understanding, the core cause of India’s economic blockades of Nepal are differing views on geopolitics, security, and strategic issues. However, he identified four immediate causes of the Indian blockade in 2015: Nepal’s reluctance to delay the constitutional promulgation; Nepal’s lack of response to demands of India-backed Madhesh-centric parties; the growing Chinese footprint in Nepal; and broken promises from Nepali leaders.
During the blockade era, Thapa made five visits to India, some formal, some informal. From October 17, 2015 to June 10, 2016, he traveled twice informally at the invitation of the Indian spiritual Guru Ravi Shankar, made two formal visits, and once made the trip to attend the convocation ceremony of South Asian University as the chair of SAARC.
In his book, Thapa details Nepal’s track-two diplomacy to unlock the blockade of 2015. First was spiritual diplomacy. Ravi Shankar, a guru from southern India who had helped Thapa meet Modi when he was chief minister of Gujarat, helped Thapa raise the issue of the blockade with the Indian prime minister. Another spiritual guru to support Thapa was Acharya Balkrishna. These two spiritual figures helped raise the issue with ruling Hindu nationalist leaders of India, which Thapa believes helped to end the unofficial economic embargo.
Thapa also talked about military diplomacy. Nepal and India have a tradition of conferring honorary rank on each other’s armies. Nepali Major General Himalaya Thapa made a visit to India during the blockade period and talked to the military leadership of India. Later on, Chief of the Army Staff Rajendra Chhetri also made an India visit to discuss the issue.
There was also plenty of formal diplomacy between the governments during this period. India’s then foreign secretary, S. Jaishankar, visited Nepal in September 2015 as a special envoy of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was a pivotal time: India was deeply displeased over Nepal’s new constitution, which it felt inadequately addressed the demands of Madhesi groups living near the border with India. Less than a week after Jaishankar’s visit, the blockade began.
In his book, Thapa said that Nepal’s former prime minister and chair of the Maoist party, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, along with his then-deputy and former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai, were badly scolded by Jaishankar during a meeting at Dahal’s residence. Based on a conversation with Dahal, Thapa wrote that Jaishankar threatened the Maoist leader: “Had we not supported you, you would have been either in the jungle or king’s jail.”
Dahal expressed his displeasure at Jaishankar’s bad-mouthing to Thapa by asking, “How long should we tolerate their highhandedness? Are we their slaves?”
Thapa was not happy after his own interaction with Jaishankar at New Delhi’s Oberoi Hotel on October 28, 2015, He wrote, “Jaishnkar had a gloomy face and gave the cold shoulder. There was no excitement in his body language.”
Thapa also described a scolding he personally received from India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. Thapa had met Modi in 2013, while he was the chief minister of Gujarat state. This earlier rapport didn’t prevent Modi from being angry in their in-person interaction as India’s prime minister and Nepal’s deputy prime minister
Thapa said Modi was angry for two reasons: for making him a “villain” in Nepal and for “internationalizing” the blockade, which India consistently denied responsibility for. Modi angrily asked Thapa, “Do you know what it means to be a blockade?”
Similarly, Modi also accused Nepali leaders of making one commitment while in Delhi and doing just the opposite upon returning to Kathmandu. At an all-party meeting in Kathmandu, former prime ministers Sher Bahadur Deuba and Dahal said Modi was talking about the desire to see Nepal become a Hindu state.
Thapa quoted Dahal as saying, “Not Modi himself but his assistants had talked about the Hindu state. I had said that I would try my best. But, it wasn’t my commitment. It wasn’t possible because Baburam Bhattarai and his team disagreed.”
Deuba added, “They had talked about the Hindu state. I did try. But, I couldn’t [make it happen]. What can I do?”
Thapa said all Indian diplomats and leaders spoke with the same tone and same phrases when discussing the issues of 2015, telling Nepali leaders they could have delayed constitutional promulgation and could have addressed the issues of Madhesi protesters. The Indian side would take a tough stand in the formal delegation-level talks.
However, during private talks, two leaders had a more positive approach in Thapa’s telling. One was Sushma Swaraj. Thapa said the late Indian external affairs minister was opposed to the blockade on Nepal. In private talks, Sushma urged Thapa to talk in detail with Modi.
Thapa also had a positive impression of Ajit Doval, India’s national security advisor. While talking to Doval for around an hour, Thapa was optimistic upon hearing the Indian NSA say, “I am also from hills. I do understand the pains of hill folks.”
These snapshots of India-Nepal diplomacy from nearly a decade ago have continued relevance for the relationship today. Many of the same figures are still in place: Modi and Doval hold the same offices, and Jaishankar has been elevated to India’s external affairs minister. And on Nepal’s side, current Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli was also in office during the blockade, while Dahal and Deuba still lead their parties and frequently rotate into the premiership based on Nepal’s fractious coalition politics. The personal dynamics forged between these figures will thus continue to play into India-Nepal relations today.