Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rarely missed the High-Level Week at the United Nations during his years in office. Like most world leaders, he likes the visibility, the chance to meet fellow heads of government, and the opportunity to project his accomplishments on the world stage. But there is also the American stage to perform on. In recent years, he has met the incumbent president and generally found opportunities to meet the Indian diaspora and promote Indian trade and investment.
This weekend Modi checked some of those boxes. However, this has been a truncated visit – September 21-23 – and he skipped the General Assembly. He met President Biden during the annual summit of the Quad (the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India) in Delaware. Modi conducted global business as well, including India’s bid for permanent membership in the Security Council and leadership of the Global South.
The United States and India
President Biden and Modi had a bilateral meeting on Saturday at Biden’s home in Wilmington on the sidelines of the Quad Summit. As Biden might say, this was a “big freaking deal.” A meeting at the White House has protocol significance and a meeting at the U.N. has global visibility. But Biden opened his personal home to Modi (and the other Quad leaders). This reflects a degree of comfort and intimacy in the relationship that is unprecedented since President Dwight Eisenhower invited Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, to his home in Gettysburg in 1956. This was likely the final meeting between the two leaders and is the culmination of a personal relationship that has grown significantly over the years.
As at past summits, a ludicrously long joint statement listed virtually all the initiatives underway between India and the U.S., far more than could have been discussed by the two leaders. The very length obscures the important developments, such as recent progress on defense sales, including of sophisticated armed drones, and U.S. appreciation for Modi’s recent trip to Ukraine. Clearly, a conscious decision was made to avoid any mention of China or the war in Gaza even though those topics surely figured significantly in the private talks. It is clear that the partnership has grown dramatically over the past 25 years, and in the past four under the Biden administration.
But Biden will soon be history. Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is the future. Modi must tread carefully in this U.S. election season. He embraced Trump – literally, as well as figuratively – during Trump’s presidency. In his bombastic style, Trump announced Modi would be “coming to meet me,” though the Indian government declined to formally confirm the meeting. Much as he and Trump appear to admire each other – in style, as much as in substance – Modi is a good enough politician to watch the ballot box before he jumps into anyone’s embrace.
Especially given his productive relationship with the Biden administration, meeting Trump but not Harris would have been awkward.
India on the World Stage
Last year, Modi hosted an International Yoga Day event at the U.N. Headquarters with thousands of invited guests practicing their asanas under his instruction. This year, the major public event was off the U.N. campus: a gathering of the Indian diaspora on Long Island in a 16,000-capacity arena. This was significantly smaller than Houston’s NRG stadium, where he appeared with Donald Trump in 2019 at the “Howdy, Modi” rally and addressed a crowd of 50,000 people.
Notably, Modi is not taking the opportunity to address the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) this year and, like last year, has deputed Foreign Minister Jaishankar to do so in his stead. He instead participated in the pre-UNGA Summit of the Future, hosted by the U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, where U.N. reforms, including of the Security Council, were on the agenda. Unlike the General Assembly, Modi and world leaders only had a few minutes rather than the 15-minute slot allotted to each country during High-Level Week speeches.
The Security Council: India’s Goal and Biggest Frustration
India has led the effort to expand the Security Council beyond the post-war structure that was created in 1945 and slightly expanded in 1965. Not many countries would dispute India’s assertion that the five-nation permanent members, the winners of World War II, reflect an outdated geopolitical scene. The problem as India has discovered is finding the formula that would replace that outdated structure.
U.S. President Barack Obama took a big step when he declared that India is a “natural candidate” for a permanent seat when the Council is expanded – a fact that was reaffirmed by President Biden in their Wilmington meeting Saturday and in the Quad declaration as well.
But no one has yet found a structure that would be approved by consensus within the General Assembly, avoid a veto in the Security Council, and be approved by the U.S. Senate.
The U.S. took another big step on reform last week when U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced support for two permanent seats in a reformed Council for Africa and one elected seat for small island developing states. She also said the U.S. supports text-based negotiations, a process which India has long sought. This announcement will give some impetus for Security Council reform but no one is under the impression that we will see Council expansion in the near future.
Without permanent status, India competes with all the other Asia-Pacific nations for a two-year term every six to ten years. India came off the Security Council in 2022 and will not be elected again before 2028, while Pakistan will take a two-year seat in January 2025. It is particularly galling to India to see Pakistan occupy (albeit temporarily) a seat at the high table of global policy that India believes is its right by virtue of its population, and growing economic and security clout.
Modi used his presence at the U.N.’s Summit of the Future to reiterate India’s Security Council reform goals. But it is odd that he decided to forego the larger forum of the General Assembly to argue India’s case.
Wooing the Global South
India sees itself as the voice of the Global South. China disagrees. To prove their point, both countries are wooing the countries of Africa, Latin America, Asia, and Oceania. China brings the greater resources although its Belt and Road Initiative has proven to be a double-edged sword. India brings soft power – through Bollywood and more – and in some parts of the world a significant diaspora. Modi noticeably included the African Union when he hosted the G-20 last September and made sure the the grouping would be a permanent member of future G-20 meetings.
Apart from “Africa Summits” in Delhi or Beijing, New York is the best locale to lay on the diplomatic efforts. The secretary general’s “Summit of the Future” provided the opportunity to rub shoulders with African leaders. Staying around New York for a few days more for the UNGA would have allowed for a lot more encounters as well as formal bilateral meetings.
Prime Minister Modi had his dramatic meeting in Wilmington with President Biden and his multilateral moment with the other Quad leaders. He checked the U.N. box but not as enthusiastically as he might have. And the Quad itself received an added push as India looks forward to hosting the next summit in 2025.