The election to decide the next leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Japan’s largest national opposition party, was launched on September 7. For a while it seemed that Izumi Kenta, the incumbent leader, would see his term extended without any qualms. Although the CDP lost seats – six in total – under Izumi’s leadership during the 2022 House of Councils election, in recent months his party has been stacking up one victory after another, defeating Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-backed candidates and filling the void in an electoral district that was formerly represented by LDP parliamentarians.
Ironically, as the prospect of a change of government had crystalized, Izumi’s youth and inexperience started to appear problematic. CDP members who gained executive governing experience, particularly in the short-lived Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration from 2009-2012, largely agree that they were viewed as “inexperienced” and “naive” then, and believe that overcoming that image is crucial to convince the public to give them another chance.
In that light, Izumi, who only has sub-cabinet level experience, seemed a weak leader not up to demonstrating “experience” and “competence.” Thus two CDP party elders – who both held high government posts during the DPJ administration – have decided to challenge the current incumbent.
The first of the two who announced his candidacy against Izumi was Edano Yukio, the founder of the CDP and former chief cabinet secretary who was the government spokesperson during the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The other party elder who decided to come forth was Noda Yoshikiko, a former DPJ prime minister and finance minister. In comparison to Izumi, both Edano and Noda have far more experience in high-level decision making, and they have argued that their qualifications make them more desirable candidates than Izumi, the current party leader.
More concerning for Izumi is that voters who are interested in the CDP leadership race seem to agree that “experience” should be the deciding factor in determining the new leader. A poll from Senkyo Dotcom, albeit with a small sample size, showed that the approval ratings of Noda and Edano surpassed that of Izumi. Another warning sign for Izumi in the same poll was that he was neck and neck with another contender, Yoshida Harumi, a first term female lower house member, who barely has political experience (in comparison to Izumi, who has been in politics since 2003).
A different poll from NHK, which was conducted before all the candidates announced their candidacy showed that Noda was by far the favorite to succeed Izumi; he had a comfortable 26-point lead over the sitting CDP leader. At the moment it is increasingly likely that both Noda and Edano will head off to the runoff election, which will leave one of them to succeed Izumi.
It should be noted that the polls from Senkyo Dotom and NHK are not an accurate reflection of CDP rank and file members, considering that their aggregate numbers are small and hard to poll. However, the general tendency that the more experienced candidates have stronger appeal in the ongoing race seems to be right. And the fact that Izumi was struggling to gather enough endorsements to announce his candidacy, while Noda and Edano had already declared theirs, seems to attest to a party atmosphere that values experienced leadership, which will help the CDP both win the next general election and govern competently.
Another dynamic that is unfolding in the context of the CDP election is the emphasis on “realism.” In politics, the term realism is oftentimes used in two different ways. One is when policy makers apply it in the context of foreign and national security policy debates; they argue that the world outside Japan is a “zero-sum game” and Japan should prepare itself to face malign actors and urgent crises.
True to this definition, candidates have been arguing that even if there is a change in government, the CDP will virtually inherit the LDP’s foreign policy and execute a “realistic” foreign and national security policy. In pursuit of a “realistic” policy, candidates such as Noda and Edano have seemed to abandon their party’s basic policy goal to repeal parts of the LDP’s controversial security legislation – which all contenders recognize as unconstitutional. Noda has argued that doing so may discredit the new government’s international reputation. In the case of Edano, he implied that as the government’s interpretation of “collective self -defense” may contain some risks, the current application of the law is not causing any major issues.
The second feature of realism involves the recognition and execution of a policy that is “feasible.” One of the criticisms of the DPJ administration was that it over-promised the public. For example, the party pledged that it would cut wasteful spending and redistribute 16.8 trillion yen to the public, which it couldn’t.
Also, Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio pledged to construct the new U.S. base outside of Okinawa – catching not only the United States, but Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs by surprise. These actions reinforced the DPJ’s image as a party that proposes “unrealistic” policy goals, a perception that made the public turn against it. Hatoyama, the DPJ’s first prime minister, had to resign less than a year after his party was granted an outstanding majority in the Diet.
The candidates in the current CDP race have been trying to convince their supporters – and the wider Japanese public – that they will implement policies that are feasible, particularly on energy policy. Although the CDP party platform stipulates that they “will realize a nuclear power plant-free society that does not depend on nuclear energy as soon as possible,” only Yoshida has been arguing to that end, while other candidates state that phasing out nuclear power should be a gradual process.
An article by Tokyo Shimbun, written by Nakazawa Minoru and Kondo Noriyoshi, pointed out – with cynicism – that while the ongoing LDP presidential election is focused on a “sense of renewal,” the CDP race is focused on a “sense of stability,” which shows how eager the CDP is to prove their reliability as a governing party.
It is clear that the CDP is still entrapped in the memory of the DPJ administration, which a large swath of the public considered a failure 12 years ago. Those DPJ officials are still leading – or wanting to lead – the CDP. The CPD’s recent emphasis on “realism” and “feasibility” highlights the trauma that the CDP members experienced during the DPJ administration; the party continues to be defined by it.
However, it is noteworthy that the resurgence of Noda and Edano – the old names – in the polls, and the candidates’ insistence that the experience that they gained in the DPJ administration is a “strength” rather than “weakness” is indicative of the ongoing evolution within the CDP. The current state of the leadership race shows that passing time has rendered the party and its supporters in a new light and as evidence that they can start governing from day one.
The right-wing’s accusation that the DPJ administration was a “nightmare” has largely stuck to the public psyche, and that has mooted any counter-arguments coming out from the CDP. The CDP believes that the long nightmare has ended. Whether the public will acquiesce to that proposition will be something to watch out for in the future general election.