During his annual state of the nation address on September 2, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that Kazakhstan will hold a referendum on October 6 to determine whether to proceed with the construction of a nuclear power plant. This has been in the works for some time. Tokayev first raised the idea in 2019 as part of a broader strategy to address the country’s energy needs, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and decrease greenhouse gas emissions. The proposal gained momentum due to frequent power outages and the nation’s vast uranium resources.
Why Is the Government Keen to Construct a Nuclear Power Plant?
Kazakhstan’s desire to move toward nuclear energy is primarily driven by its need for energy security. The country could face a severe electricity shortage within the next decade. By 2035, Kazakhstan expects electricity consumption to increase significantly to 152.4 billion kWh. However, due to the expected decline in output from existing energy sources – caused by factors such as decommissioning, aging infrastructure, and tougher environmental regulations – the country’s electricity production is anticipated to drop below 135 billion kWh. To meet the growing demand, Kazakhstan will need to introduce new power generation capacities totaling 26.5 GW by 2035.
The government argues that nuclear power plants (NPPs) are needed to maintain a stable energy system in Kazakhstan. Timur Zhantikin, the director general of Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants (KNPP), who argues that a nuclear power plant is the only stable and safe source of electricity, emphasized that many industrial development projects in Kazakhstan are currently stalled due to insufficient energy supply. He highlighted that while renewable energy and other existing energy sources are part of the solution, they are not yet capable of meeting the demands of large-scale industrial projects.
NPPs offer environmental benefits, particularly in terms of emissions. They do not produce greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane, which are major contributors to global warming and climate change. Additionally, unlike coal-fired power plants, NPPs emit virtually no sulfur and nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, or other pollutants that negatively impact human health and the environment.
Kazakhstan heavily relies on coal, oil, and natural gas to meet its energy demands, posing significant environmental risks. Tariq Rauf, the former head of the Verification and Security Policy Division at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), believes that nuclear energy will play a crucial role for countries pursuing sustainable development goals. According to him, “nuclear energy will be essential for sustainable development and for reducing CO2 emissions in the coming 40-50 years.”
However, there are significant concerns regarding the potential impact of the planned nuclear power plant on Lake Balkhash, which is proposed to be used for cooling the reactors. Lake Balkhash is already under substantial stress due to overuse of water from the Ili River – its primary source – coupled with rising temperatures from climate change. These factors have led to declining water levels, increased salinity, and a reduction in fish populations, which are critical to the lake’s ecosystem.
While Zhantikin insisted that a nuclear plant will not disrupt the water balance of Lake Balkhash, he also acknowledged the importance of considering the long-term impacts. He stressed that the lake’s water balance needs to be monitored over the next century, especially as the nuclear plant is expected to operate for at least that long.
If the project goes ahead, the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan is estimated to cost $10-12 billion. Yet supporters of the project see nuclear energy as cost-effective because of the low fuel costs, long lifespan, and stable energy production. The government also hopes that the project will create jobs, increase tax revenues, and stimulate related industries.
Public Reaction to the Referendum
The proposal to construct a NPP in Kazakhstan has garnered mixed response from the public. According to a survey conducted in August, only a slight majority (53.1 percent) support the idea.
Notably, despite Kazakhstan’s advocacy for nuclear non-proliferation, many Kazakhs are wary of the NPP plan due to the country’s history with nuclear testing during the Soviet era, which left lasting environmental and health impacts. Kazakhstan voluntarily renounced the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union when the country gained independence. The country hosts the IAEA’s Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Bank, which serves as a global reserve of low-enriched uranium, ensuring a stable and safe supply for nuclear energy while mitigating the risks associated with nuclear proliferation.
Memories of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster are a source of concern and opposition toward nuclear energy, too. David Culp, vice president for consulting at the U.S. company NAC International, countered these concerns by emphasizing the robust safety measures in modern nuclear power plants. He stated in a recent interview with a Kazakh media outlet that “nuclear power plants are equipped with multi-layered safety systems and redundant mechanisms designed to minimize the risk of accidents.”
The IAEA has also been involved in assessing Kazakhstan’s readiness to develop nuclear power through multiple missions, including Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) missions. These missions have highlighted Kazakhstan’s progress in areas such as nuclear safety, emergency planning, and radioactive waste management. However, further work is needed to strengthen the regulatory framework and develop a comprehensive plan for the nuclear power infrastructure.
The IAEA and Kazakhstan have also signed a five-year framework agreement to deepen cooperation, covering the development of nuclear power infrastructure as well as nuclear and radiation safety. Last month, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry hosted an event with representatives from the IAEA and a United Nations deputy secretary-general to discuss Kazakhstan’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.
The Geopolitical Factor
Kazakhstan’s citizens are less likely to concern themselves with the external implications of building a nuclear power plant, but this move is not without its geopolitical ramifications. Kazakhstan sits at the crossroads of major powers, including Russia, China, and the European Union, all of whom have vested interests in the region’s energy landscape. If Russia’s state-owned corporation, Rosatom, secures the contract for building the plant, it would reinforce Russia’s role in Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy development. Conversely, if Kazakhstan chooses a non-Russian partner – such as companies from China, South Korea, or France – it could signal a shift away from Moscow’s orbit.
European countries, along with the United States, have shown interest in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. For Europe, a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan could mean a more stable and diversified supply of uranium and potentially enriched nuclear fuel, reducing reliance on other geopolitical players like Russia, which has historically dominated the nuclear energy sector. The potential involvement of companies like France’s EDF in Kazakhstan’s nuclear project could provide a counterbalance to Russian and Chinese influence in the region.
Referendum Only the Start of the Process
As Kazakhstan moves toward its referendum next month, survey results and the government’s support for the construction of its first NPP suggest that the public is likely to vote in favor of it. This anticipated approval, however, is just the beginning of a lengthy process before any nuclear power plant can be constructed and become operational.
The government will need to work closely with international organizations, such as the IAEA, to align its regulations with global standards. Securing financing will likely require a mix of public funds, private investments, and international loans. The construction phase itself could take up to a decade. Throughout this process, Kazakhstan will need to build its human capital to operate the plant.
Yet, as Tokayev pointed out in his address to the nation, around 200 nuclear power plants are currently operating in 30 countries around the world. Kazakhstan may well be on its way to joining that list.