Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Kazan, Russia for the 16th annual BRICS summit from October 22 to 24 holds significant political, economic and cultural implications, especially amid ongoing global challenges. The summit, themed “Strengthening Multilateralism for Just Global Development and Security,” is critical for India’s foreign policy as it seeks to deepen strategic ties with Russia, engage with China, and contribute to global governance reforms.
Politics and Security: Navigating Complex Alliances
During Modi’s bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for October 22, efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict in Ukraine will be high on the agenda. India’s delicate position as a non-aligned power, maintaining friendly relations with both Russia and the West, gives it a potential mediatory role.
Modi’s visit comes at a time when global powers are reassessing alliances considering Russia’s prolonged conflict with Ukraine. The emphasis on diplomacy and open dialogue during this summit will underscore India’s growing importance as a voice of moderation, particularly in advocating for a peaceful resolution to the stalemate. Modi’s diplomatic balancing act will aim to navigate India’s economic and security ties with Russia while ensuring that its broader geopolitical interests, especially with the West, remain intact.
Further, India’s involvement in the resource-rich Russian Arctic and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be significant agenda items. An India-Russia joint working group on the NSR has explored objectives for Indian-Russian cargo transit along the route, collaborative projects in Arctic shipbuilding, and potential training programs for Indian sailors in polar navigation.
Security discussions at the BRICS summit are expected to center on counterterrorism and regional stability, with India taking a leading role in pushing for enhanced multilateral frameworks. Modi is likely to advocate for improved intelligence sharing and regional cooperation to address terrorism, particularly cross-border threats that affect both India and the wider Asian region. Following a BRICS meeting on September 12 led by Putin and involving top BRICS security officials, the emphasis will be on strengthening collaboration to combat extremism across BRICS nations.
India’s emphasis on counterterrorism aligns with broader BRICS security concerns. At a meeting in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod in June 2024, the BRICS foreign ministers condemned terrorism as unjustifiable and reaffirmed their commitment to combating it in all forms, including cross-border terrorism and its financing. They stressed the responsibility of states in this fight, advocating for zero tolerance and rejecting double standards. Alongside terrorism, the ministers also addressed issues like drug trafficking, anti-corruption efforts, and nuclear disarmament, underlining the need for comprehensive international cooperation.
The 16th BRICS leaders’ summit provides an opportunity to strengthen joint counterterrorism initiatives, bolster cyber defense capabilities, and improve intelligence-sharing mechanisms. Modi’s focus will likely be on fostering long-term regional stability, encouraging collaboration to neutralize terror financing, and reinforcing India’s leadership in shaping multilateral security efforts within BRICS.
Economy and Finance: Strengthening Economic Partnerships
Economically, the 2024 summit comes at a pivotal moment for BRICS, which recently expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This expansion reflects a growing desire for a multipolar economic order that can counterbalance Western-dominated financial institutions.
Modi’s discussions in Kazan will likely prioritize the advancement of trade within the BRICS bloc, especially considering the immense potential in sectors such as renewable energy, technology and agriculture. Intra-BRICS trade grew by 56 percent from 2017 to 2022, reaching a total value of $614.8 billion by 2022. Further, India’s intra-BRICS trade surpassed $100 billion in 2022, marking significant economic engagement with all BRICS member nations, particularly Brazil and South Africa.
A renewed focus on enhancing the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, an alternative financial mechanism to the International Monetary Fund, will likely feature prominently in the discussions as the bloc seeks to create financial safety nets for its members.
With Modi’s emphasis on a self-reliant India, the summit offers opportunities to push forward collaborative projects, including initiatives within the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), which has been instrumental in funding infrastructure projects across the Global South. As of 2024, the NDB, created as a partial alternative to the World Bank, has greenlit 96 projects totaling $32.8 billion to enhance infrastructure for its member countries. India’s priorities include gaining more influence within the NDB and pushing for investments in green energy, an area where collaboration with Russia and South Africa holds tremendous promise.
Cultural and Humanitarian Ties: Strengthening People-to-People Connectivity
Beyond politics and economics, the summit will further cement cultural and humanitarian ties. Modi’s focus on cultural diplomacy has long been a hallmark of his foreign policy, and this visit will likely see announcements regarding deeper cooperation in education, science and technology.
The BRICS Games, which were held in June 2024 in Kazan, provide a platform to enhance people-to-people connectivity, building on past initiatives like BRICS cultural festivals and educational exchanges. Humanitarian collaboration in global health initiatives, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, will also remain a key focus area, with India advocating for equitable vaccine distribution and the strengthening of health infrastructure across the Global South.
Thawing China-India Relations: A Critical Development
A potential meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Kazan summit signals a possible thaw in the strained relations between the two Asian giants. Tensions have simmered since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, and although border talks have continued sporadically, the relationship remains delicate. A meeting between Modi and Xi could signal a turning point, as both leaders explore diplomatic solutions to long-standing border disputes and look to enhance economic cooperation.
The recent de-escalation efforts along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) point to a willingness to reduce tensions, although security concerns, particularly regarding China’s growing influence in South Asia, remain high on India’s agenda. Moreover, Modi will likely push for more balanced trade relations, as India grapples with a trade deficit with China that exceeded $85 billion in 2023-24.
Beyond security, there is growing recognition within both leaderships that a pragmatic approach to trade and investment could benefit their domestic economies. As the largest economies in the BRICS bloc, India and China have much to gain from cooperating within the BRICS framework, particularly in areas of shared interest, such as climate change and technology development. However, any progress would require delicate negotiations to address lingering geopolitical concerns, especially China’s activities in the Indian Ocean region.
BRICS Expansion: The New World Order?
The expansion of BRICS – which has now doubled in size – marks a significant milestone in the bloc’s evolution. This new configuration is seen as a challenge to Western-dominated international institutions, with Modi emphasizing India’s role in promoting a more inclusive global governance system.
For India, the inclusion of these new members opens doors to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa, regions where it has steadily increased its diplomatic and economic footprint. Iran’s inclusion, in particular, presents India with strategic opportunities in energy cooperation, with the potential to revive discussions around the long-delayed Chabahar port project.
As the first BRICS summit after this historic expansion, discussions will likely center around defining the roles of the new members and aligning the bloc’s strategic goals. For Modi, the expansion serves as a platform to bolster India’s leadership within the Global South, positioning BRICS as a counterweight to the G-7 and other Western alliances. With the bloc now representing 46 percent of the global population and nearly 30 percent of the world’s GDP, India’s role in shaping the group’s future direction is pivotal.
Conclusion: A New Era of Cooperation?
Modi’s participation in the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan will mark a crucial juncture in India’s engagement with the global order. By navigating complex geopolitical challenges, strengthening economic partnerships and advocating for greater cultural ties, Modi seeks to position India as a leader within the BRICS framework and beyond. The potential for improved relations with China, coupled with the expanding influence of the BRICS bloc, underscores the transformative potential of this summit in reshaping global governance and fostering a more equitable world order.