“Risk” is a widely applied term in South Korean politics. Typically, the word follows a person’s name or an event to indicate that the noun may harm a politician’s agenda or reputation. There is, for instance, the “Lee Jae-myung risk,” which encapsulates the legal challenges confronting the opposition leader and the grim consequences that may ensue should he face conviction.
Lee, of course, is not alone in this plight. President Yoon Suk-yeol also carried considerable risks when entering Yongsan (the South Korean equivalent of the White House) in May 2022. His presidency so far has been overshadowed by what’s collectively known as the “Kim Keon-hee risk” – the scandals involving none other than the president’s wife.
These scandals range from allegations of Kim plagiarizing her master’s thesis and her past as a nightclub hostess to more serious charges of Kim and her mother gaining outsized profits by manipulating the stock prices of Deutsch Motor, a South Korean import company.
But the most infamous example that caught national and international headlines involved the first lady allegedly receiving a bribe from a Korean-American pastor, Choi Jae-young, in September 2022 – after Yoon assumed the presidential office. Kim was secretly recorded by Pastor Choi apparently accepting a 3 million won ($2,250) Christian Dior bag. The footage was exposed by Voice of Seoul, a left-wing YouTube channel, in November 2023.
Initially, the news of Kim and luxury largesse elicited mixed reactions from the public. Political circles were also split along predictably partisan lines. Yoon’s ruling People Power Party (PPP) dismissed the event as a “political trap,” while the opposition Democratic Party called for a formal investigation.
But as general elections loomed in April 2024, agitation over the Kim Keon-hee risk grew apace. The prospect that negative coverage of the first lady could undermine the PPP’s competitiveness and calls from within Yoon’s own party to put his house in order forced the president to address the matter. On February 7, just days before the Lunar New Year in South Korea, KBS aired a pre-taped exclusive interview with the president.
Unfortunately, the president’s 7-minute explanation of the scandal fell well short of expectations. While Yoon discussed preventative measures to stop similar shenanigans from recurring, he offered no concrete plans. His response to installing a second annex, which manages and oversees the first lady’s activities, or the appointment of a special inspector was insincere at best. Many who sat through the hour-and-a-half-long interview seeking clarity were left dissatisfied and with more questions.
Polls taken before the KBS sit-down had, in fact, forecasted that an attempt by Yoon to clarify the situation regarding his wife or to present future policy measures would likely be in vain. An Embrain Public poll released on February 6, the day before the interview aired, showed that 40 percent of respondents saw an apology from Kim as the most appropriate response to the “handbag scandal.” Another poll indicated that 56 percent of respondents viewed the incident as corruption requiring an investigation.
Neither Yoon nor Kim formally apologized, and the presidential office ignored the public’s calls for a formal probe.
In early March, we co-authored an opinion piece urging Yoon and his party to confront the scandal head-on or run the risk of facing a severe fallout in the general election. The article was turned down by an outlet (not The Diplomat) for lacking hard evidence. At the time, the ruling PPP appeared to be recovering from internal wrangling and months of plummeting approval ratings under its interim leader Han Dong-hoon. A reputable pollster even projected a decisive victory for the PPP in the legislative election. We contended otherwise.
Then came election day. The results, as we anticipated, delivered a devastating blow to Yoon’s party. The ruling PPP secured just enough votes to bar the opposition from forging a super-majority in the parliament. Of course, it would be misguided to place the entirety of the blame on the first lady. But no discerning observer, even from the conservative camp, doubts that Kim has played a pivotal role in shaping the party’s fortunes.
Back then, we referred to Kim Keon-hee risk as a ticking time bomb. That remains true. Since the electoral defeat in April, the first lady continues to make headlines with disturbing stories. Notably, in September, News Tomato reported that Kim had been illicitly involved in nominating candidates for a 2022 by-election and the 2024 parliamentary elections. The initial report and follow-up investigation by mainstream media revealed that Kim had leveraged her connections with Myung Tae-kyun, a shadowy figure linked to a polling agency, to interfere in candidate nomination processes.
At this point, conservative constituents and politicians are walking on pins and needles, waiting to see what other bombshells will surface in the final two-and-a-half-years of Yoon’s tenure. Future scandals that could ultimately jeopardize the incumbent regime’s survival. A recent Gallup Korea poll aptly illustrates this trend, showing Yoon’s approval ratings have reached record lows. Most respondents attributed their discontent directly to the ongoing issues concerning Kim.
Equally troubling is the president’s constant downplaying and justification of his spouse’s misconduct. Yoon’s once-stalwart image as an uncompromising prosecutor who led heavy-handed investigations into political and business elites is nowhere to be seen today. When the charges of misconduct implicate his family, the president apparently operates with a different yardstick. This was evident when Yoon twice vetoed (recently in October) a bill seeking a special counsel inquiry into allegations against Kim, despite overwhelming public support for such an investigation.
Since taking office in May 2022, Yoon has trumpeted freedom, the rule of law, and human rights as the nation’s foundational values. The rule of law, in particular, has been a central theme in many of his speeches. But as any citizen of a functioning liberal democracy knows, the rule of law can only thrive when everyone – including the leader and his kin – is held accountable to the same standards and laws.