To date, no sitting U.S. president has visited any Central Asian country. However, despite the absence of such high-level visits, the United States actively engages with the region through diplomatic channels and various cooperation formats, such as the C5+1 platform. This underscores the strategic importance of Central Asia to the U.S., even without direct presidential visits. The region closely follows the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections, as they may significantly affect the relations between Central Asia and the United States.
The Central Asian region has always played an important role in international relations due to its significant historical contributions to the development of socioeconomic, cultural, and political processes, as well as its geostrategic location, which has made it a key node for global trade and cultural exchanges.
This region – encompassing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – is of strategic importance. It is abundant in natural resources, making it a key area of interest for major global powers. Central Asia serves as an important energy hub due to its vast reserves of oil, gas, and other natural resources. The region holds 13.2 percent of the total natural gas reserves in the CIS and 4 percent of global reserves. The region’s oil reserves represent 3.5 percent of global supplies.
Since 2016, with the rise to power of Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan, the regional situation has undergone significant changes, with Central Asia moving toward closer cooperation. Mirziyoyev not only identified the improvement of relations among the countries of Central Asia as a main goal of his foreign policy, but he invested significant diplomatic energy in deepening region-wide economic, political, and security cooperation.
Uzbekistan’s active regional policy has led to substantial progress in these areas, contributing to more stable and mutually beneficial relationships in the region.
A key moment for the region was the creation of the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Heads of State at Mirziyoyev’s initiative. These meetings have evolved into an effective regular platform for regional dialogue, aimed at jointly creating a zone of stability, security, and sustainable development. This evolution of a “Central Asian spirit” highlights the close interconnection and complementarity of the internal and external policies of the region’s countries.
Over the past 30 years, the Central Asian countries have pursued a multi-vector foreign policy focused on establishing pragmatic relations with numerous external partners. This approach allows the states of the region to balance various external forces, maintaining their independence and flexibility in international relations. Such a course strengthens their economic resilience, security, and positions on the global stage. A multi-vector foreign policy also enables Central Asian countries to respond quickly to global challenges and adapt effectively to changing geopolitical realities.
Why Are the U.S. Presidential Elections Relevant for Central Asia?
In light of the region’s preference for multi-vector foreign policies, and more recent efforts within the region to amplify cooperation, Central Asia is watching the U.S. presidential election closely for several reasons.
First, the strategic nature of regional cooperation. During Donald Trump’s first presidency, the “U.S. Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity” was adopted, aimed at strengthening the region’s countries’ independence, fostering their economic development, and ensuring stability.
The strategy outlines six key principles. The first is to support the sovereignty and independence of the region’s countries and help strengthen democratic institutions and economic development. The second is to reduce terrorist threats by enhancing the capacity of law enforcement agencies and reintegrating former fighters into society. The third is to promote Afghanistan’s stabilization and develop economic ties between it and Central Asia. The fourth is to encourage regional integration by developing cooperation in the areas of economy, trade, culture, and security. The fifth is to support reforms in the areas of rule of law, human rights, and political inclusivity. The sixth is to stimulate U.S. investments by creating a transparent and open business environment.
If Trump wins the upcoming election, the strategy may be updated with a greater emphasis on strengthening economic cooperation and ensuring regional security. In this case, special attention will be paid to creating favorable conditions for U.S. investors, as well as continuing policies aimed at maintaining stability in the region, including by addressing modern challenges. Trump’s approach may become more pragmatic, focusing on security issues and economic benefits for both sides, making engagement with Central Asian regions more targeted and results-oriented.
Thus, a Trump victory could enhance economic cooperation and strengthen existing security mechanisms in the region, which will play an important role in Central Asia’s economic development.
If current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, U.S. policy toward Central Asia is likely to continue with a focus on broader social and environmental aspects, in addition to traditional security and economic cooperation issues. Harris, representing the Democratic Party, may revise the Trump-era strategy, considering greater emphasis on democratic values, human rights, and sustainable development.
It is also important to note that, as Michael Hirsh wrote for Foreign Policy, Harris has learned a great deal while serving as vice president under U.S. President Joe Biden. Thanks to her experience, she may demonstrate a deeper understanding of the region’s importance for global security and stability, especially in the context of relations with Afghanistan, combating extremism, and developing economic ties.
Second, Central Asia will be watching the U.S. presidential election due to the importance of the C5+1 dialogue platform. In 2015, during Barack Obama’s presidency, the C5+1 platform was launched, providing for regular meetings of the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries and the United States. This initiative marked an important step in the development of diplomatic cooperation aimed at addressing key issues in security, economy, and environment.
Over the past nine years, the C5+1 platform has strengthened dialogue and cooperation between the United States and Central Asian countries through regular ministerial meetings, expert discussions, and the work of thematic groups. This format has allowed the parties to focus on resolving key regional issues, such as security, economic development, energy security, and environmental protection. Thanks to the “C5+1,” the U.S. and Central Asian states have not only established closer ties but also created mechanisms for more effective cooperation aimed at maintaining stability and sustainable growth in the region.
During Biden’s presidency, in 2023, a historic meeting of the C5+1 leaders took place in New York, aimed at strengthening the platform’s role in international politics. The summit marked the beginning of a new phase of cooperation between the Central Asian countries and the United States.
The summit was attended by the leaders of all five Central Asian countries, which contributed to deepening cooperation with the U.S. and creating favorable conditions for strengthening regional stability, economic development, and mutual support. Following the meeting of the heads of state in the “Central Asia – U.S.” format, a declaration was adopted, addressing current global and regional challenges and outlining key areas for future cooperation.
If Trump wins the upcoming election, the C5+1 format is likely to retain its significance, as it continued through his first presidency, although the focus may shift toward pragmatic cooperation, centered on security and economic interaction. Trump, being a proponent of prioritizing U.S. national interests, may use the C5+1 as a platform for strengthening regional security and developing economic ties. Trump may emphasize attracting U.S. investments to the region and creating favorable conditions for business. The United States may become more active in promoting economic interests through energy and infrastructure projects.
Harris’ policy is likely to focus more on the long-term development of the region through the “C5+1,” with greater attention to issues of democratic reforms, sustainable development, and social justice. In general, under both Trump and Harris, the C5+1 format will remain an important mechanism for cooperation between the U.S. and Central Asia, though the nature and focus of this interaction may differ depending on the political agenda of the new U.S. president.
Regardless of who wins the upcoming U.S. election – Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – the main directions of their foreign policy in Central Asia are likely to include strengthening regional security, with a particular emphasis on the situation in Afghanistan, promoting economic reforms, and attracting investments. Attention will also be paid to energy cooperation, climate change, and expanding cooperation within the C5+1 framework. In addition, significant attention may be devoted to strengthening trade and economic ties, supporting the digitalization of the economy, and developing transport and logistics infrastructure, which will allow Central Asian countries to more actively integrate into the global economy.