Beyond the protests of green activists and the withdrawal of Argentina’s delegation, the issues raised at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will persist long after the summit concludes. Just across the Caspian Sea, Central Asian states are acutely aware of the environmental challenges facing their region.
Water scarcity remains a pressing issue as agricultural over-extraction depletes vital water sources. The drying up of the Aral Sea has created a salt desert of 5.5 million hectares and produces 100 million tons of dust and toxic salt. Meanwhile, poor irrigation practices have led to soil salinization, particularly in Uzbekistan, degrading land quality, and diminishing agricultural productivity.
Tajikistan, which generates 97 percent of its energy from hydropower, suffers from routine domestic electricity shortages and power cuts. This has prompted the country to fire up coal power plants to satisfy the demands of Dushanbe’s re-industrialization, worsening the country’s air quality.
The effort to overcome these environmental issues is further complicated by Central Asia’s heavy reliance on oil and gas for economic growth, making a transition to sustainable and green energy increasingly challenging.
Kazakhstan Takes the Lead
As the most industrialized of the Central Asian states, Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to a green transition. The country adopted a Green Economy Plan in 2013 with the aim of generating 50 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2050. It has also adopted a strategy to become a carbon neutral country by 2060 with an interim goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent from 1990 levels by 2030.
Efforts are underway to reduce coal’s share in energy generation from 69 percent to 40 percent while increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix from 3 percent to 15 percent. Kazakhstan has also reportedly planted 843 million trees between 2021 and 2023 and aims to plant 2 billion by 2027.
With a mining industry that represents 20 percent of the country’s total exports, the demand for “critical minerals” will continue to rise as countries seek resources necessary for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries and wind turbines. In May, Kazakhstan signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to modernize the country’s mining sector.
On October 6, over 70 percent of Kazakhstan’s citizens voted in favor of constructing a nuclear power plant, giving the country an increased set of options to reduce coal dependence and improve energy security.
“Kazakhstan has made it clear that, as the largest economy in the region, it is committed to being a climate leader,” said Kamal Aubakirov, a graduate student from Georgetown University specializing in Eurasia and energy policy who attended the COP29 summit. “The country is strategically expanding its international presence in multilateral spaces, recognizing shifting dynamics in global affairs and positioning itself for a more influential role on the world stage.”
Central Asia at COP29
At COP29, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that Central Asia, despite contributing just 1 percent of global emissions, faces significant climate risks. He emphasized the need for advanced technologies, such as AI and satellite monitoring, for more effective land and water management.
Special Representative for International Environmental Cooperation Zulfiya Suleimenova announced that Kazakhstan will strive to complete the development of regulatory acts on methane, aiming to reduce non-emergency methane venting and promote leak detection and repair in the oil and gas sector, as well as to finalize the National Program for Methane Emissions Reduction by COP 30 in 2025.
Minister of Ecology Yerlan Nyssanbayev introduced Kazakhstan’s carbon farming initiative at the summit, focusing on transforming agriculture into a carbon-absorbing sector to help mitigate climate impacts and restore degraded land. Equipped with 200 million hectares of agricultural land, Tokayev has invited international investment into Kazakhstan’s carbon farming sector as path to sustainable agriculture.
The Kazakh leader also expressed his support for a group of Experts for the Caspian Sea, initiated by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, while reaffirming Kazakhstan’s intensified efforts to preserve the Aral Sea.
“President Tokayev’s presence was particularly prominent,” observed Aubakirov. “Whether giving speeches or visiting Kazakhstan’s national pavilion, he commanded attention throughout the Baku Olympic Stadium. Additionally, Kazakhstan secured significant agreements, including a $2.5 billion investment commitment from China for energy and infrastructure projects.”
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov underscored the urgent need to address the vulnerability of mountain regions to climate change, particularly their impact on water resources.
Currently, the Central Asian states are exploring ways to coordinate renewable energy projects, including integrating energy grids between Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. The three countries signed a strategic partnership agreement for green energy development and transmission, including the joint construction of a clean energy cable beneath the Caspian Sea to export renewable energy to European markets. At the COP29 summit, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) held the first Energy Transition Investment Forum for Central Asia, signaling increased multilateral engagement focusing on the region.
Challenges Ahead
Although Central Asia has demonstrated a strong commitment to environmental sustainability, the path to a “green transition” remains fraught with obstacles. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in particular are heavily dependent on fossil fuels, creating economic disincentives to transition to renewable energy. Meanwhile, transboundary water conflicts remain an issue that must be resolved in order to open the possibility for sustainable water management. In this context, France and Kazakhstan will co-host the One Water Summit in December, which aims to tackle global water governance issues.
The transition to sustainable energy will also require substantial improvements in technology and infrastructure. While China may be a willing provider of such investments, it is in the region’s long-term interests to continue to diversify partnerships and raise Central Asia’s profile to attract broader international cooperation.
As great power competition intensifies and politicizes initiatives like the international environmental agenda, Central Asia cannot rely on external actors to seek solutions on its behalf. This is an era where regions must advocate for themselves and pursue avenues of cooperation to achieve their ambitious goals.
“Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan were quite vocal about their presence at COP29,” noted Aubakirov. “The growing divide between the ‘Global North’ and the ‘Global South’ is becoming increasingly apparent.”