Even as representatives from nearly 200 countries participating in the November 11-22 COP29 at Baku, Azerbaijan, were busy negotiating how governments should respond to the climate crisis, South Asians were choking as air quality in the region plunged to alarming levels.
With the Air Quality Index (AQI) level touching unprecedented levels in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh — the AQI in New Delhi rose to 474 at one point to breach the “severe plus level,” while it reportedly breached 1,600 in parts of Lahore — schools had to be shut in several cities and traffic movement restricted.
South Asia is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. Global warming is causing the Himalayan glaciers to shrink, causing devastating floods in the Indus and Brahmaputra basins. As sea levels rise, Bangladesh’s land is receding. The World Risk Index 2023 ranks Bangladesh as the ninth most vulnerable country globally to climate-related disasters. Rising sea levels are projected to submerge 17 percent of the country’s land by 2050, threatening around 30 percent of its agricultural land.
According to the World Bank, 750 million people in South Asia were affected by climate disasters in the past two decades. Highlighting Bangladesh’s climate vulnerability, Syeda Rizwana Hasan, an adviser to the Bangladesh Ministry of Environment, said that two major floods this year caused damages amounting to $1.7 billion, equivalent to 1.8 percent of the national budget.
Given how severely climate change is impacting the region, South Asian countries were keenly awaiting the outcome of the Baku climate meeting.
At COP-29, countries adopted a new climate finance package of $300 billion annually by 2035, replacing the $100 billion pledge made in 2009.
Although climate finance was bumped up by three times, developing countries, which bear the brunt of the climate crisis although their contribution to carbon emissions has been disproportionately low, are understandably disappointed with the paltry climate finance package.
They had sought funding of $1.3 trillion annually from rich countries, given the enormous costs they have to incur to make the transition to clean energy.
India, for one, strongly rejected the climate finance deal, describing it as “too little and too distant” as it does not address the enormity of the challenge faced by developing nations. The Indian delegation emphasized that the $300 billion pledged by the rich is “incompatible with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and equity.”
India relies heavily on coal, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of its electricity generation. Transitioning away from coal requires not only financial resources, social safety nets for millions of people employed in the sector, and capacity building. It needs significant international investment and technological support to make the transition to climate-friendly technology.
At Baku, South Asian countries drew attention to the climate change challenges they are facing. Underscoring its carbon-negative status, Bhutan sought international assistance for its adaptation initiatives, particularly in addressing the risks to its agriculture and water resources due to erratic weather patterns. Nepal, which is struggling with the dual threats of glacial melt and erratic monsoon rains, pushed for global recognition of the disproportionate impacts climate change has on Himalayan countries and sought funding for resilience-building projects. Afghanistan drew attention to the droughts, floods and agricultural failure due to climate change that it is struggling with. The Maldives called for increased international funding for climate adaptation, stressing the disproportionate vulnerability of small island states to climate impacts.
South Asian experts have also drawn attention to unmet pledges by the rich countries whether with regard to reducing emissions and delivering on funding pledges.
“Over the years, developed country groups have denied and delayed emission reductions, deployed MDBs [multilateral development banks] and other private sectors to mobilize climate funds (which are predominantly loans), and denied liability for climate change-induced loss and damage, as well as compensation,” Md Shamsuddoha, chief executive of the Centre for Participatory Research and Development (CPRD) in Dhaka, said.
Zakir Hossain Khan, chief executive of Change Initiative and a renowned Bangladeshi climate expert, told The Diplomat that “the focus of COP29 appears to be on promoting loans, thereby creating a debt cycle for developing nations.”
He highlighted that there is no mention of debt relief in the Baku agreement, only debt sustainability, which essentially encourages borrowing. Such an approach would push countless people in developing countries below the poverty line and into a debt trap, fostering what he described as “climate colonialism.”
Additionally, Khan stressed that funds for a just transition should be supplementary and that loss and damage financing should be provided as grants rather than loans.
There is a danger that delay in mitigation measures by developed nations could exacerbate climate risks and reduce disaster management capacities.
Pakistan epitomizes the urgency of addressing climate-induced loss and damage. The 2022 floods displaced 7.9 million people and affected an estimated 33 million people, causing $30 billion in economic losses.
While COP29 reiterated the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, contentious debates on its governance and financing called into question the efficacy of such a mechanism. The case of Pakistan serves as a reminder that funds need to reach communities promptly and not get caught in red tape, which has plagued similar mechanisms in the past.
The agreements at COP29 also have implications for transboundary water management, a critical issue for South Asia. With Himalayan glaciers melting at an alarming rate, the water security of millions is under dire threat. Regional cooperation on water resource management remains elusive, hindered by geopolitical tensions. For example, climate stress has strained the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan. Yet such cross-border concerns were not adequately addressed at COP29.
Moreover, climate-induced migration is another pressing concern. Rising sea levels, desertification, and extreme weather events are forcing millions of South Asians to relocate. This environmental threat is driving significant migration from coastal areas to urban centers.
While COP29 made some progress on these matters, many challenges persist. The developed world’s reneging on binding commitments and the absence of enforcement mechanisms erode trust in global climate processes
The road ahead remains uncertain, and without stronger accountability and a more inclusive approach, the future of South Asia’s climate resilience remains precarious.