The 90-day campaign period for the Philippines’ mid-term elections opened today, against the backdrop of a bitter political feud that culminated in last week’s impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.
A total of 18,280 seats will be up for grabs in the May 12 polls, including all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half of the 24 seats in the Senate, 82 governorships and vice-governorships, and thousands more executive and legislative positions at the regional and municipal level. (Official campaigning for local positions begins on March 28.)
But the election is set to be dominated by the bitter political feud between Duterte and her one-time ally, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. – one that political analyst and former presidential adviser Ronald Llamas likened this week to “an unfolding saga that could rival any Netflix series.” After aligning to remarkable effect ahead of the 2022 presidential election, the relationship between the two top leaders has deteriorated sharply. The resulting rivalry fed into last week’s sensational House vote that impeached the vice president, accusing her of “violation of the constitution, betrayal of public trust, graft and corruption, and other high crimes.”
Duterte, the daughter of pugnacious former President Rodrigo Duterte, is currently the subject of a House investigation into her alleged misuse of more than 612.5 million pesos ($10.5 million) of confidential and intelligence funds, both as vice president and education secretary. She has also been accused of amassing unusual amounts of wealth and threatening the life of President Marcos, his wife, and his cousin Martin Romualdez, the current speaker of the House.
Even prior to last week’s vote, the Marcos-Duterte battle had threatened to turn the mid-term elections into a proxy battle between the two political clans ahead of the 2028 presidential election. The most important arena is the Senate, where 12 of the 24 senators are up for election, seven of which involve incumbents seeking re-election. Among the most prominent of the 64 senatorial aspirants are allies and supporters of both Marcos and Duterte. Marcos has endorsed a number of prominent figures, including three former movie actors, the daughter of the country’s richest man, and former boxer Manny Pacquiao, who ran against him in the 2022 presidential election.
Since Philippine presidents are limited to a single six-year term, the Senate election is important if Marcos is to ensure the continuity of his domestic agenda and grant him the power to anoint a successor for the presidential election in 2028. The Dutertes, too, have their eyes on the summit, with Sara Duterte stating this week that she is “seriously considering” a presidential run in three years’ time.
The impeachment has now added an extra weight of political significance to the battles for the 12 Senate positions. As Reuters noted in a report today, the May 12 election will “effectively decide half of the jurors” for the Senate trial that will decide whether to impeach Duterte and remove her from office, something that would also bar her from running for elected office for life, including for the presidency.
Much now hinges on when the Senate will hold Duterte’s impeachment trial. The chamber is officially on recess until June; Senate President Francis Escudero has the power to reconvene it at an earlier date, but it is unclear whether he will do so. In either eventuality, a report in Rappler argued, the crisis is set to “cast a long shadow on the campaign period, creating a highly delicate scenario for seven reelectionist senators who will have to consider the feelings of both supporters of the administration and sympathizers of the country’s second highest leader.”