India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Washington, D.C. on February 12-13 to meet with newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump. Their talks are expected to shape the trajectory of bilateral ties in areas like trade, investment, and defense for the next four years.
Modi’s meeting with Trump comes close on the heels of those by Prime Ministers Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Ishiba Shigeru of Japan. It follows a visit to Washington by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar for Trump’s inauguration and a telephone conversation between Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and his newly confirmed U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth.
From being on opposite sides during the Cold War, India and the United States have elevated ties to a “Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.” Their relationship has been described as “the defining partnership of the 21st century” that is “decisively delivering on an ambitious agenda that serves the global good.” The decisive turn in ties came during U.S. President Bill Clinton’s visit to India in 2000. Since then, the relationship has enjoyed bipartisan support across successive administrations in both countries.
However, Trump is known to be transactional and unpredictable. Though he and Modi get along quite well, Trump has never shied away from criticizing India for high tariffs; he has famously described India as “tariff king” for preventing the easy flow of U.S. goods into Indian markets. The U.S. president has also threatened to penalize countries with trade surpluses vis-à-vis the United States. Two-way trade between India and the United States topped $118 billion in 2023-24, with India posting a surplus of $32 billion. In 2024, this surplus stood at $45.6 billion, according to U.S. data.
Having managed to work with Trump during his first term in office, New Delhi will be keen to ensure an equally smooth if not better relationship with the U.S. president this time around given the uncertainties in the world, including the global economy.
What can Modi offer Trump during their talks this week that will ensure ties are managed without hiccups and remain on an even keel during the next four years of the Trump presidency?
For one, India has already signaled a cut in duties on a range of imports that would help increase U.S. exports to India. These include high-end cars and motorbikes, potentially benefiting American companies like Harley-Davidson. The announcement on tariff reductions was made in the annual budget that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled in Parliament on February 1. Some more announcements could be on the anvil.
Another proposal that could mollify Trump could be the offer to restart talks on a trade deal. A limited trade pact with the United States was under discussion during Trump’s first term in office between 2017-21. The India-U.S. joint statement in February 2020, issued after Trump’s visit to India, said the two countries had “agreed to promptly conclude the ongoing negotiations, which they hope can become phase one of a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement that reflects the true ambition and full potential of the bilateral commercial relations, advancing prosperity, investment, and job creation in both countries.” It was not completed due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Trump administration giving way to the Biden administration in 2021.
Earlier this month, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was quoted as saying that India wanted “to make sure American goods get a fair tariff regime and Indian goods get an equal opportunity in the United States.”
Another measure that has been suggested to narrow the trade gap is the purchase by India of more U.S. military hardware. This could work. For instance, during Trump’s first term in office, India bought 24 submarine-hunting MH-60R Seahawk helicopters for the Indian Navy under a $2.6 billion contract signed in February 2020. In a phone call late last month, Trump “emphasized the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship,” a White House statement said later.
Ahead of Modi’s visit to Washington, there are reports that India is considering buying more C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft and P-8I maritime patrol aircraft from the United States.
The Indian government has also indicated that it could buy more energy from the U.S. It was in 2017, during Trump’s first term in office, that India began energy imports from the United States. In 2020, there was talk of deepening the energy cooperation further, with the U.S. looking to meet “India’s goal to diversify its import base for coking or metallurgical coal and natural gas [and] welcoming recent commercial arrangements intended to accelerate access to LNG [liquefied natural gas] in the Indian market.”
During the Biden administration, the emphasis was on green energy and technologies to mitigate the impact of fossil fuels on the environment.
With Trump back in the White House and vowing to make the U.S. rich again on the back of energy exports, India and the U.S. could explore this area for further collaboration.
Then there is the nuclear energy space. India has been on the lookout for small modular reactors to boost energy production in Asia’s third largest economy.
Despite India and the U.S. signing a civil nuclear pact in 2008, cooperation in this sector has been non-existent largely due to premier Indian entities like Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Center (IGCAR), and the Indian Rare Earths (IRE) being under U.S. restrictions. India’s 2010 Civil Nuclear Liability Law puts the liability of accidents on the suppliers of reactors and components and not on the operator of the plants, stymying international interest in India’s huge nuclear power market.
Last month, Jake Sullivan, who was national security adviser in the Biden administration, announced that Washington would “remove” hurdles for civil nuclear partnership between Indian and American firms. Subsequently, BARC, IGCAR, and IRE were removed from the restricted U.S. Entities List.
In her budget speech, Sitharaman said that the Indian government would amend the Civil Nuclear Liability Law to encourage the active participation of the private sector. This opens the door for new opportunities for U.S. businesses that will strengthen Modi’s hand as he heads to Washington.
All these steps are, however, long-term ones with considerable gestation periods.
A possible immediate takeaway from the Modi-Trump meeting this week could be India agreeing to take back more of its certified nationals staying illegally in the United States.
The return of more than 100 Indians from the U.S. in an American military aircraft sparked criticism after news reports drew attention to detainees being shackled and handcuffed during the flight. Perhaps India can work out an arrangement with the U.S. to smoothen the deportation process with the use of its own resources to fly back other Indian deportees. That could be a win-win for both sides. It would give Trump a domestic boost on illegal migration while bolstering India’s argument for keeping the legal routes open for students, skilled professionals, tourists, and business.