The 2025 Asian Winter Games will be held in Harbin, the capital of China’s Heilongjiang Province, from February 7-14. As is its custom when hosting multinational sporting events, China has invited important politicians and leaders from neighboring countries to attend either the opening or closing ceremony of the Games.
Foreign leaders who came to China to attend the opening ceremony included Sultan of Brunei Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu’izzaddin Waddaulah, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, and South Korean National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik.
Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai will be there for the closing ceremony.
According to a Mongolian government press conference, Oyun-Erdene will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and other senior Chinese leaders during his visit to China from February 13 to 15. This will be his fourth visit to China – following trips in February 2022, June 2023, and November 2024 – but his first visit to Harbin.
Mongolia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources of Mongolia Tuvaan Tsevegdorj and Minister of Roads and Transportation of Mongolia Delgersaikhan Borkhuu told reporters that cross-border railways, coal trade, and air pollution will be the main topics of the prime minister’s meeting with Chinese leaders. China’s Foreign Ministry spokespeople Guo Jiakun and Lin Jian both declined to comment on the specific topics of discussion ahead of Oyun-Erdene’s trip, but said the two countries are committed to deepening cooperation in a variety of fields.
On February 5, a regular meeting of the Mongolian Cabinet authorized the minister of industry and mineral resources and the minister of roads and transport, to sign an “Agreement between Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China on Cooperation in Increasing the Coal Trade and the Capacity of the Tavan Tolgoi Coal Mine and Establishing the Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu Cross-Border Railway.” The agreement will mark a milestone for a railway connectivity project that has been stalled for 16 years.
The Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu China-Mongoliay cross-border railway was first proposed in 2009, but has hit repeated disruptions over issues such as mineral development, track gauge disputes, and changes in the Mongolian government. On April 2, 2024, the project was restarted when China and Mongolia signed a deal for the joint construction of the railway’s cross-border bridge. At the same time, Mongolia listed the railway as the top priority among 14 large-scale bilateral projects, laying the foundation for a renewed push to get the railway built.
On November 5, 2024, during Oyun-Erdene’s last visit to China, the two sides inked a follow-up agreement on joint construction. The Mongolian prime minster met with Liu Guoyue, board member and chief executive officer of China Energy Investment Corporation, which will be responsible for constructing the railway. The two sides reached a consensus on the Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu cross-border railway project. On December 25, Oyun-Erdene submitted the draft resolution for the cross-border railway project to Mongolia’s parliament for consideration, further promoting its implementation.
According to the preliminary construction plan, the Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu cross-border railway will have a total length of 8,081 meters, with 5,441 meters of bridge facilities. It will be built using UIC 60 steel rails, with one wide gauge (1520 mm) and one standard gauge (1435 mm) main line. Reportedly, the railway project is being financed by state-owned mining company Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC for a total of 976 billion tugrik ($283 million). China Energy and its subsidiaries will handle construction, which is supposed to begin in April 2025.
Members of the Mongolian government say that the implementation of the Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu cross-border railway project will complement other cross-border railways. After the completion and opening of the project, it will transport 30 million tons of goods annually and be able to undertake between 55 percent and 60 percent of Mongolia’s coal exports.
The government predicts that completion of the railway could boost Mongolia’s coal exports to 120 million tons and Mongolia’s per capita GDP to $10,000. For comparison, Mongolia exported 83.7 million tons of coal – a record high – in 2024, and had a per capita GDP of $5,838 in 2023.
In 2024, Mongolia’s coal exports to China jumped to nearly 83 million tons – up from 70 million tons in 2023 and only 31 million tons in 2022. That year, Mongolia built a 240 kilometer railway line from the Taban Tolgoi mine to China. However, these tracks stop near the border and require trucks to complete the journey. Mongolia’s government hopes that completing the Gashuunsukhait-Ganqimaodu cross-border railway project will provide an ever bigger boost to coal sales in China.
Another important area of cooperation between China and Mongolia is tourism. Even considering the economic downturn after the pandemic, China remains one of the largest sources of foreign tourists for Mongolia, along with Russia and South Korea. Among the approximately 727,000 tourists visiting Mongolia in 2024, the number of Chinese tourists reached nearly 177,000. According to data from China, Mongolia was China’s seventh largest source of inbound tourism in 2018, before the pandemic.
Chinese Ambassador to Mongolia Shen Minjuan noted in a media interview that “Mongolia has rolled out initiatives like ‘Years to Visit Mongolia’ and ‘Go MonGolia’ to attract more foreign visitors, including from China, a large and neighboring source of tourists. China has also encouraged its citizens to travel to Mongolia.” Among the steps taken in 2024, she highlighted that China and Mongolia “resumed international passenger trains, reopened border ports for passenger vehicles under eight seats, reopened one-day border trips, increased flight routes and charter flights, and introduced measures to make payment easier.”
Shen added that despite this, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Mongolia is still “relatively low,” which the ambassador attributed in part to Mongolia’s lack of visa-free and visa-on-arrival policies for Chinese nationals. She pointed out that Mongolians enjoy 30 day visa-free travel to China, adding, “We look forward to a facilitating visa policy by Mongolia for Chinese visitors.”
Mongolia has taken some steps in this regard. Starting from 2023, Chinese nationals holding ordinary passports can take advantage of the online application for electronic visas to Mongolia.
In Mongolia, Oyun-Erdene’s upcoming visit to China has drawn public attention to the China-Mongolia cross-border railway agreement and the huge coal sales contract. Accusations of corruption in coal sales to China sparked massive protests in Mongolia in December 2022. The Mongolian government has since taken steps to address the issue, rolling out a new anti-corruption strategy in 2023, but coal exports remain a fraught topic.
Oyun-Erdene’s trip comes at a sensitive time politically for the Mongolian prime minister. During the winter, Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, faces frigid temperatures. A significant proportion of the population residing in ger districts relies on burning coal and other fuel to hear their homes. This practice leads to severe air pollution, which has been identified as a contributing factor in the elevated mortality rates among children and vulnerable groups.
Based on these air pollution-related fatalities, and associated social and human rights concerns, MP Lodoisambuu Chuluunbileg and other members of the State Great Khural, Mongolia’s parliament, have openly called for the impeachment and dismissal of the prime minister. Social and human rights issues – including air pollution, traffic congestion, corruption, and low government efficiency – have led to public discontent in Mongolia, and Oyun-Erdene’s approval rating has suffered as a result. How these political dynamics at home will impact his diplomacy in China remains to be seen.