Since the unprecedented bust-up between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on February 28, the Japanese government has been struggling to cope with the rapidly changing situation.
Opposition parties are calling for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to join forces with European countries that have expressed solidarity with Ukraine, but Ishiba has maintained a neutral stance, suggesting that he wants to avoid worsening ties with the Trump-led U.S. government, Japan’s only ally.
Responding to the White House clash between Trump and Zelensky, the leaders of the major Western countries explicitly have voiced their unwavering support for Ukraine.
But Ishiba has played word games, avoiding any criticism of Trump by insisting that would mean “taking sides.”
“I have absolutely no intention of taking sides” between the United States and Ukraine, Ishiba said at the House of Representatives Budget Committee on March 3.
The prime minister stressed he “would like to make further efforts to see how we can retain American involvement and how we can ensure the unity of the G-7 countries as a whole.” Japan, like the United States, is a member of G7.
But there is no sign that Ishiba is playing a proactive international role, such as serving as a bridge between the United States and Ukraine, or between the United States and Europe, where the gap is widening.
There are steps that Tokyo can take as a member of the G-7, such as sending a special envoy to relevant countries, reaffirming continued support for Ukraine, and putting a phone call in to other G-7 leaders. If the late Abe Shinzo were prime minister today, Japan would likely be conducting more proactive diplomacy.
If Ishiba, who has promoted himself as a security expert in Japan for years, continues to wait and see, the divide among the G-7 nations could widen.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German economic think tank, Japan has provided 11 billion euros in aid to Ukraine from the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through December 2024, ranking fourth among all countries after the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Although Japan has been providing much money to support Ukraine, Tokyo has no visible presence on the international stage amid the high-profile split between Kyiv and Washington.
Furthermore, in recent years, Tokyo has been striving to consolidate its security cooperation with like-minded Western nations, based on the shared values of freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Therefore, the Japanese government’s current cautious and silent stance toward Trump is being called into question for being inconsistent with what Japan has said up to now.
Trump has been demanding mineral resources from Zelenskyy, which seems to be a kick in the ribs to a country that is the victim of Russian aggression. More than a few media outlets have reported that Trump is reviving 19th-century imperialism.
Looking ahead, in the worst case, pro-Russia Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may change the geopolitical picture. What was always “Russia vs. the West” may become “America and Russia vs. Western Europe” under Trump. If that happens, Ukraine may become prey for both the United States and Russia.
Will Japan still support Ukraine then?
No matter how much other countries insist that they will not allow the status quo to be changed by Russia’s use of force, if the United States – the most powerful country in the world – endorses it, the rest of the world will have no choice but to accept this.
As the Trump administration abandons Ukraine, there is also no telling when the U.S. will withdraw its troops from East Asia.
When asked, “Will you defend Taiwan if China attacks it?” Trump said that if there was an attack, “we will impose tariffs of 150 to 200 percent on China.” He said he would punish China with tariffs, but he did not say he would send in the military. There is a possibility that he will abandon Taiwan against nuclear-armed China.
On March 6, as The Diplomat predicted, Trump complained that the U.S. bilateral security arrangement with Japan, signed in 1960, was one-sided.
Meanwhile, on March 4, Elbridge Colby, the nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, the Pentagon’s No. 3 position, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that “Japan should be spending at least 3 percent of gross domestic product on defense as soon as possible and accelerating the revamp of its military to focus on a denial defense of its own archipelago and collective defense in its region.”
Colby also said Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending to around 10 percent of GDP.
Ishiba also emphasized in the recent Diet meeting, “Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia. We must also consider steadily increasing our deterrent power to prevent war.” He is absolutely right.
Japan should see this as a good opportunity to return to being a truly “normal country” with full military capabilities to conduct offensive operations if necessary. Japan must stop relying too heavily on the United States and work harder to strengthen its independent defense capabilities. The same goes for Taiwan.
In fact, anticipating the decline of U.S. hegemony, South Korea has been working hard to strengthen its independent national defense for years, under both conservative and progressive governments.
“Given the conflicting circumstances, Japan is being forced to make difficult decisions about how much it should follow in the footsteps of the United States, and for how long,” Col. Frank Kowalski, who served as the chief of staff of the U.S. military advisory group that helped establish the National Police Reserve, the predecessor to the Japan Self-Defense Forces, wrote in his memoir published in Japanese in 1969.
Now, 56 years later, those questions are again being posed to Tokyo.