When Myanmar’s military staged a coup on February 1, 2021, many assumed history would repeat itself. The junta, with decades of experience in repression and vast firepower, was seen as “too big to fail.” Previous uprisings in 1988 and 2007 had been brutally crushed, as were the anti-coup protests that took place in early 2021. However, four years later, Myanmar’s resistance movement has defied expectations, forcing the military into a losing battle.
The junta has lost control of vast territories to a decentralized and highly adaptive resistance. In late 2023, coordinated offensives by ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) shattered the junta’s strategic position, and by 2024, resistance forces were advancing toward the capital Naypyidaw, the military’s stronghold. This resilience stems from changes in the people, battlefield, and nature of resistance since Myanmar’s democratic opening (2011-2021).
Unlike past movements, Myanmar’s current resistance operates like a school of fish: decentralized, adaptive, and impossible to crush with a single blow. It also resembles a flock of geese, rotating leadership to sustain momentum. This fluid structure has transformed perceived disorganization into a strategic strength, allowing resistance forces to maintain relentless pressure and resist external manipulation from major powers like China.
A Decentralized and Adaptive Resistance
Myanmar’s resistance appears fragmented: it is made up of a mix of People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), local militias, and the National Unity Government (NUG) without a unified command. Unlike Ukraine, where the military resistance operates under a central government, Myanmar’s anti-junta forces lack a single leader or headquarters.
However, this is a strength rather than a weakness. Like schooling fish, different groups operate semi-independently but share intelligence, resources, and a common goal: overthrowing the junta and establishing a federal democracy.
This decentralized model offers several advantages. First, there is no single leader for the junta to eliminate. The assassination or capture of one commander does not cripple the movement. Second, there is no central headquarters for the junta to destroy. Resistance groups are spread across multiple regions, making large-scale offensives difficult. Third, it increases the resistance’s adaptability to battlefield conditions. When one front slows, attacks escalate on another, keeping the junta off balance.
This structure has allowed the resistance to sustain a prolonged campaign, neutralizing the junta’s advantage in firepower and resources.
The Flying Geese Effect
Unlike traditional insurgencies that rely on a single dominant faction, Myanmar’s resistance follows a flying geese formation, with leadership rotating based on battlefield dynamics.
So far there have been four “waves” of leadership.
- The NUG and PDFs (2021–2022): The National Unity Government (NUG) provided political direction during the early stages of the resistance, while PDFs launched urban guerrilla attacks, disrupting junta control and setting the stage for larger offensives.
- Ethnic Armed Organizations (2023): In October 2023, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army (AA) launched Operation 1027, capturing major towns, military bases, and trade routes in northern Shan State, and dealing a decisive blow to the junta.
- The Arakan Army (Late 2023–Early 2024): The AA launched a major offensive in Rakhine State, seizing more territory and forcing the military into retreat. This demonstrated the flexibility of the resistance, as different factions took the lead at different times.
- Multi-Front EAO Offensive (2024–Present): By early 2024, nearly all major EAOs – including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Karen National Defense Force (KNDF), Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), and Chin ethnic armed groups – had launched their own operations. This multi-front strategy overstretched the junta and brought the resistance closer to Naypyidaw.
This rotational leadership prevents exhaustion, ensures continuous pressure, and stops any single faction from dominating, making the movement also resilient to external manipulation, particularly from China. This rotational leadership has been successful because, like geese, all groups share a clear understanding of their collective direction and destination.
Why the Junta Is Losing
In contrast to the resistance, the military junta forces have lost their purpose, suffering from unprecedented defections and mass surrenders, demonstrating their lack of directionality and unity. The Myanmar military is now in an untenable position. Unlike past uprisings, it faces a countrywide insurgency with no clear center of gravity, a networked resistance that adapts faster than its rigid hierarchy, and a generation of fighters who refuse to return to military rule.
China, initially hedging its bets, has since thrown support behind the junta. After the fall of Lashio, the de facto capital of northern Shan State, in August 2024, Beijing pressured northern EAOs like the MNDAA and TNLA to retreat. While this slowed momentum in the north, the decentralized resistance allowed other groups, such as the AA, KNDF, KIA, and KNLA, to escalate attacks elsewhere. Many of China’s key infrastructure projects now lie in resistance-controlled areas, limiting Beijing’s influence over the movement. Meanwhile, the U.S., ASEAN, and regional actors recognize the growing strength of Myanmar’s resistance but remain cautious.
The Road Ahead: Toward a Federal Future?
Myanmar’s resistance is rewriting the rules of insurgency. While challenges remain – coordinating governance in liberated areas, managing diverse political interests, and ensuring post-junta stability – its adaptive structure gives it a strategic edge. The fall of Naypyidaw may not be imminent, but the junta is fighting a losing battle against a movement that is more flexible, determined, and cohesive than ever before.
The future of Myanmar is no longer in the hands of the military: it is being shaped by those who refuse to live under it.