On February 28, just over three years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Washington to negotiate and sign a mineral deal with the U.S. government. He hoped the pact would exchange Ukrainian resources for U.S. security guarantees, an essential step toward a long-lasting ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
However, the White House meeting between Zelenskyy and U.S. officials turned out to be a disastrous display of Trumpian diplomacy. In a tense atmosphere, talks quickly broke down over a minor disagreement. U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance berated Zelenskyy, with both shouting angrily at the Ukrainian president.
Although many expected Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington would be difficult, no one predicted such an appalling display of U.S. arrogance and tactlessness. The meeting demonstrated the worst side of the Trump administration’s style of diplomacy, sending shockwaves worldwide. European leaders quickly spoke out in support of Zelenskyy, while Russian officials commended Trump.
What to Conclude from the Meeting
Trump and Vance’s crass behavior toward Zelenskyy belittled his leadership as a wartime president and the leader of a sovereign state resisting foreign aggression. They repeatedly demanded that the Ukrainian president express gratitude to Trump and disparaged Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from Russia – as if Ukraine is a U.S. tributary rather than a valiant nation that has resisted foreign aggression for three years against overwhelming odds. This approach ignored the U.S. and world’s interest in stopping aggression by one state against another.
The meeting also laid bare the consequences of the America First ideology, which will govern U.S. foreign policy for the next four years. It is now clear that America First is not only about the United States retreating from its traditional role as the world’s police, but also about coercing dispensable nations into submitting to U.S. designs, even at the cost of their sovereignty, security, or territorial integrity.
Additionally, the meeting also unveiled the decision-making process of the Trump administration. It is clear that Trump’s personal whims dictate all policies. His preference for surrounding himself with loyalists and enablers has serious consequences. Cabinet members must agree with Trump’s beliefs, leaving no room for dissent, restraint, or self-reflection. The best way to survival in such an environment is to cheer on the president’s every decision. Given this dynamic, it is unsurprising that U.S. policies have been unstable, unpredictable, and uncooperative with the global consensus.
Trump’s absolute control over U.S. foreign policy means from now on, nations interacting with the United States must cater to his personality rather than U.S. interests. Trump has long disliked Zelenskyy and, despite the Ukrainian president’s effort to mend ties, Trump remains vengeful over Zelenskyy’s close relations with former U.S. President Joe Biden. Given how the Trump administration treated Zelenskyy, it is clear that Trump does not see world leaders as equals and will readily discard those he no longer considers useful – unless they belong to the selected few that Trump has a special affinity for, such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump’s character flaws, compounded by the lack of honest advisers in his circle, create a situation where there are no bottom lines to his worst impulses. The public humiliation of a U.S. partner in front of the press and talk of cutting all aid to Ukraine after the fiery exchange serve as a stark reminder to always assume the worst when forecasting Trump’s approach to foreign relations. His personal defects will likely degenerate further in the echo chamber he has built, multiplying future pitfalls for U.S. foreign policy.
China’s Golden Opportunity
Just three months ago, the idea that China could appear as a more rational actor than the United States on the world stage seemed improbable. Since the beginning of the Trump administration, China maintained its composure and observed the U.S. president dealing one self-inflicted wound after another to the United States’ global standing. During the February 24 United Nations vote to condemn Russian aggression, China abstained, while the U.S. voted alongside Russia against the popular global consensus that favored Ukraine. Compared to the U.S. pressure tactics to corner Ukraine into submitting to an unfavorable ceasefire and its support for Russia’s demands, China’s 2023 and 2024 peace plans that called for de-escalation and a negotiated solution to the conflict no longer appear strictly pro-Russia.
Moreover, in comparison to the volatility of Trump, China’s Xi Jinping seldom exhibits rudeness when receiving foreign dignitaries. Following Zhou Enlai’s philosophy of “diplomacy has no minor issues” (外交无小事), Xi consistently treats counterparts with courtesy and professionalism. While China’s foreign policy is far from perfect, its interactions with the world are markedly more predictable and relatively rational than Trump’s temperamental decision-making.
The looming disintegration of the Western alliance – bound to overhaul geopolitics worldwide – presents China a golden opportunity to expand its influence. Rising global uncertainty will negatively affect most countries. Losing confidence in U.S. leadership, more governments may seek to align with powerful states that promote stability. Although China remains an immediate threat to Taiwan, few developing countries in the Global South would find fault with China’s trade-centric approach. Even when China interferes in the politics of other countries, it is rarely conducted in a witless or overt manner. Despite the ”wolf warrior” diplomacy period from 2019 to 2022, few Chinese diplomats launched unsophisticated personal attacks against foreign leaders in official settings. As U.S. global leadership falters, China might seize the opportunity to break free from its diplomatic predicament and improve ties with nation disillusioned by the United States under Trump.
The Coming Geopolitical Realignment
The White House confrontation between Zelenskyy and Trump is a watershed in the reversal of U.S. foreign policy and put U.S. vulnerabilities on full display. Reflecting Trump’s personality, the U.S. government now appears chaotic, insolent, vindictive, and strategically confused. It is no longer interested in defending the post-World War II world order and has instead aligned itself with the revisionist ambitions of Russia, which seeks to regain control of not just Ukraine, but all former Soviet states. The impending global tumult will heighten demands for stability and reliable leadership. In this vacuum, more nations may look to China to fill the role that the United States once played – an unthinkable outcome just a few months ago.
If China capitalizes on this excellent opportunity, it could profoundly reshape world geopolitics in its favor. With the fast disintegration of U.S. leadership in Europe, EU-U.S. relations are set to reach a nadir as the Trump administration withdraws support for Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russia and cozies up to Putin, who poses an imminent threat to European security.
Given Trump’s lack of principles and vindictive nature, it is conceivable that the United States could sever ties with the EU and even leave NATO. The worst-case scenario is that the U.S. might aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, through material support or direct military intervention against the Ukrainian government, since Trump definitely holds a burning grudge against Zelenskyy after their quarrel. The partnering of the U.S. and Russia, already in its early stage, would place Europe in a geopolitical trap, sandwiched between two powerful but bellicose actors. To break the bind, European governments may seek to improve relations with China, given Beijing’s potential to counterbalance the U.S. and even constrain Russia. In exchange, China would seek greater economic returns from the EU, the world’s largest economic bloc.
At the same time, China will aim to maintain strong ties with Russia. In spite of Russia’s growing influence over the U.S. government – a Kremlin spokesperson matter-of-factly told reporters on March 2 that Trump’s approach “largely aligns with our vision” – Moscow certainly has concerns over the capriciousness of the Trump administration and the long-term prospect of this relationship. From Beijing’s perspective, it surely has qualms over the Russia-U.S. informal alliance that is fast taking shape, aimed at overturning the existing global order that has benefited China’s rise.
A weakened Russia serves China’s interest as it elevates Beijing to the role of the senior partner. However, a Russia freed from the Ukraine morass, emboldened and exerting heavy influence over the U.S. government, poses a threat to China. The Chinese are well aware that Russia is never satisfied being its junior partner. Russia sees itself as a suppressed great power and Russian nationalists have always viewed China as a competitor – at times, even as a threat to Russia’s long-term dominance. Xi, having grown up during the Sino-Soviet Split, when the Soviet Union almost launched attacks to annihilate China’s nuclear capabilities, is clear-sighted about the complexities of this relationship.
To navigate these rapidly changing geopolitical alignments, China must strengthen its ties among developing nations of the world. To build up its stature as the leader of the Global South, China is likely to conduct a diplomatic campaign to reassure concerned states of its support for stability, trade, and non-interference in domestic affairs. Given the rising concerns about U.S. volatility, it is expected that the majority of developing countries will be receptive to Chinese promises and strategic initiatives. Chinese influence is poised to expand in the Global South belt of Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.
In sum, recent U.S. actions and the White House confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy shows that the United States’ role as the leader in world affairs and protector of the prevailing international order is rapidly crumbling. This shift presents China with a historic opportunity to expand its influence worldwide. As the world’s emerging power broker, China may position itself as a stabilizing force in an increasingly chaotic world. The coming geopolitical rearrangement will have enduring consequences, causing major shifts in the balance of power and global leadership. China, once on the back foot in the China-U.S. rivalry, might soon find itself having the upper hand.