Bangladesh’s political landscape has undergone seismic shifts over the past decade, marked by the rise of authoritarianism under Sheikh Hasina and the eventual ousting of her regime through a student-led revolution. Throughout this period, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has remained a significant political force, often regarded as the only party capable of defeating Hasina’s Awami League in free and fair elections.
However, despite its mass support base, the BNP has consistently been denied the opportunity to govern due to what many describe as Hasina’s election engineering. This manipulation of the electoral process not only kept the BNP out of power but also transformed Bangladesh into an authoritarian state, where dissent was crushed and democratic institutions were systematically dismantled.
The 2024 student-led revolution, which ultimately toppled Hasina’s regime, was a watershed moment for Bangladesh. It rekindled hopes for democracy and political pluralism. Yet, in the aftermath of this historic upheaval, the BNP finds itself at a crossroads. Despite its historical popularity, the party is losing ground due to a combination of internal weaknesses, external pressures, and shifting public expectations. If the BNP is to reclaim its position as a leading political force, it must address these challenges head-on and adapt to the new realities of a post-revolution Bangladesh.
The BNP’s Mass Support Base and the Shadow of Authoritarianism
The BNP has long been one of Bangladesh’s most popular political parties, with a support base that has remained remarkably consistent over the years. According to recent surveys, the party enjoys the backing of approximately 42 percent of the electorate. This level of support suggests that, in a free and fair electoral environment, the BNP would likely have emerged victorious in the 2014, 2018, and 2024 general elections. However, such an environment has been conspicuously absent in Bangladesh for over a decade.
Under Hasina’s leadership, the Awami League government systematically undermined democratic processes to consolidate its grip on power. The BNP, as the primary opposition party, bore the brunt of repression. Its leaders were jailed, its members harassed, and its ability to campaign severely curtailed. This election engineering not only denied the BNP a chance to govern but also entrenched authoritarianism in Bangladesh, leaving little room for political pluralism or dissent.
The 2024 revolution, led by students and youth activists, was a direct response to this authoritarian drift. It was a powerful expression of popular discontent with the Hasina regime’s abuses and a demand for a return to democratic governance. The revolution succeeded in ousting Hasina, but it also ushered in a new era of political uncertainty.
For the BNP, this presents both an opportunity and a challenge. On the one hand, the party’s historical support base positions it as a natural contender for leadership in a democratic Bangladesh. On the other hand, the party’s inability to capitalize on this support base in the post-revolution period has raised questions about its relevance and effectiveness.
Tarique Rahman’s Absence: A Leadership Vacuum
One of the most significant challenges facing the BNP is the prolonged absence of its acting chairman, Tarique Rahman, from the country. Rahman has been living in London since September 2008. A victim of the Hasina regime’s persecution, he was sentenced to life imprisonment in several politically motivated lawsuits. Many had expected Rahman to return to Bangladesh following the revolution, but he has yet to do so, even though some of the charges against him have been dropped.
Rahman’s absence has created a leadership vacuum within the BNP, which has been skillfully exploited by its political rivals, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). Once a marginal force in Bangladeshi politics, JI has seen its support base grow dramatically, from under 10 percent to 32 percent, according to recent surveys. This surge in popularity can be attributed, at least in part, to JI’s ability to position itself as a viable alternative to the BNP, particularly among conservative voters. In contrast, the BNP’s support base has remained stagnant at 42 percent, suggesting that the party is failing to expand its appeal or capitalize on the post-revolution momentum.
Rahman’s continued absence is not just a symbolic issue; it has practical implications for the BNP’s ability to govern and lead. As the acting chairman, Rahman is the de facto leader of the party, and his failure to return to Bangladesh has left the BNP without a unifying figurehead. This has weakened the party’s organizational structure and undermined its ability to negotiate with the interim government on critical issues, such as the reformation of the state structure. If the BNP is to regain its footing, Rahman must return to Bangladesh and take an active role in leading the party through this transitional period.
Allegations of Extortion and the Erosion of Public Trust
Another factor contributing to the BNP’s declining popularity is the perception that the party is plagued by extortion. Over the years, numerous allegations of misconduct have been leveled against BNP members, tarnishing the party’s reputation and eroding public trust. While the BNP has taken steps to address this issue by expelling some of the accused members, the damage to its image has been significant.
While young activists of the revolution are demanding transparency, accountability, and a break from the politics of the past, the BNP’s failure to distance itself from power-hungry elites and embrace a more inclusive and dynamic leadership style has only reinforced the perception that the party is out of touch with the aspirations of the people.
Conservatism in a Time of Radical Change
The BNP’s conservative approach to the reform process has also become a liability in the post-revolution era. The interim government, which was established following the ousting of Hasina, has proposed sweeping reforms aimed at restructuring the state and addressing the root causes of authoritarianism. While the BNP’s reluctance to endorse radical reforms is understandable – given the risk of prolonging the interim government’s tenure – it has put the party at odds with the demands of the youth-led revolution.
The July revolution awakened a generation of young Bangladeshis who are eager for transformative change. They want a complete overhaul of the political system, not incremental adjustments. The BNP’s conservatism, which may have been a viable political strategy in the past, is now seen as an obstacle to progress. If the party is to remain relevant, it must find a way to reconcile its cautious approach with the revolutionary fervor of the youth.
The Path Forward: Leadership, Reform, and Inclusivity
The challenges facing the BNP are significant, but they are not insurmountable. To regain its position as a leading political force, the party must take decisive action on several fronts. First and foremost, Tarique Rahman must return to Bangladesh and assume a more active role in leading the party. His presence would not only galvanize the BNP’s support base but also demonstrate the party’s commitment to the democratic process.
Second, the BNP must address the allegations of extortion and occupation that have tarnished its reputation. This will require a thorough internal review and the implementation of strict accountability measures. The party must also embrace a more inclusive and dynamic leadership style, one that resonates with the aspirations of the younger generation.
Finally, the BNP must strike a delicate balance between its conservative instincts and the demand for radical reform. While it is important to avoid hasty decisions that could destabilize the country, the party must also recognize that the status quo is no longer tenable. By engaging in constructive dialogue with the interim government and other stakeholders, the BNP can help shape a reform agenda that is both transformative and sustainable.
The BNP’s ideological inclusivity, which has long been one of its greatest strengths, must also be leveraged to build broader coalitions and foster national unity. The spirit of the revolution was one of hope and solidarity, and the BNP must embody these values if it is to lead Bangladesh toward a brighter, more democratic future.